climate change, education, mathematics, weather

On Misrepresenting Hurricane Statistics (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

There’s data and there’s statistics. There’s also the misrepresentation of these.

We all know that statistics themselves don’t lie, but the people who use statistics may intentionally or unintentionally do so. A Tweet late yesterday by Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) was the most recent example to catch my eye. With the Atlantic Ocean region bustling with intense hurricanes at this time, it would be easy for some people to draw an incorrect conclusion from Holthaus’ data (Fig. 1) – i.e., that intense hurricane activity is escalating. But that’s not necessarily what is happening.

While Holthaus’ initial post was misleading (and implied that NOAA data supported the trend line), it is important to recognize that the hurdat (hurricane data) values are the “best” historical hurricane data that scientists may have. However, hurdat contains known errors and omissions and is only as good as the observations that were used to generate the data set. Holthaus continued with additional comments and a link to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) suggesting that climate change was either the culprit now or would soon be the culprit – “Additional context: There was likely undercounting pre-1960. We expect more Cat 5’s in the future, if not already.”

First, research conducted by some scientists (e.g., Ryan Maue, Matt Bolton, and myself) indicates that the long-term global hurricane trend is “steady” and that hurricanes are not becoming more intense. Then, one must recognize that there has been a dramatic change in global observing and forecasting systems since the mid 19th century.

In fact, it wasn’t until the latter part of the 1800’s that hurricane warning offices were established and it wasn’t until the mid 20th century before the National Hurricane Center was created. Hurricane hunter aircraft were not employed until the 1940’s and the first weather satellite didn’t arrive on the scene until 1960. Since 1960, satellite observation systems have evolved to be highly powerful, high frequency, and high resolution observing tools (Fig. 2). These satellites can now see entire ocean basins; in earlier years, point ship and island reports were all that meteorologists had available. To say that “There was likely undercounting pre-1960,” would be an understatement.

The bottom line is that the data table and reference links offered by Eric Holthaus are misleading. Such data and associated statistics need to be viewed with a consistent (or at least a clearly stated discussion of the) data and how it was obtained. Apples must be compared to apples!

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/19/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

consumerism, weather

Insurance Matters – Post Irma and Post Harvey (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

During the past two weeks, I spent many hours helping Dave Elliott and his team at WGUF-FM (98.9) radio here in Collier County, FL. Stephen Johnson (control room) and Scott Fish (101.9 – Gator Country radio, simulcast with WGUF) rounded out the team.

While my focus was weather, I also did some research and reporting on preparedness and post storm recovery matters. I also listened to discussions among our team and calls from listeners. I’d like to start sharing some these here to help Irma victims (and also those in Texas affected by Harvey).

This article will address a few hurricane-related insurance matters. Before beginning, let me note that I am not an insurance adjuster or a structural engineer. The items described here are simply to get readers to think things through before they either ignore insurance or go crazy about dealing with it. Always, get professional advice before addressing any matters involving insurance.

(1) Read your insurance policy BEFORE contacting your agent (Fig. 1). If you don’t have a clue about policy coverages and exclusions, I predict that you will get frustrated quickly.

(2) Take pictures BEFORE cleanup. Make sure you show water levels and the wrack (debris) line, tree damage, roof tiles or shingles lying on your lawn (where they fell) with your house in the background of the image. These pictures can help your adjuster piece things together long after the storm’s visual impacts disappear.

(3) Call your insurance agent, but, be prepared for long wait times. Insurance companies typically have agents available to help you. However, when the number of potential claimants becomes large, agent access can become difficult. Some companies are setting up mobile customer support centers in affected communities. Check with your insurance company, if they haven’t already e-mailed you information.

(4) Find out what you can do to mitigate further damage, even before your claim is approved. Often, putting blue tarp on a roof and covering damaged windows are encouraged. Be sure that anyone you contract with is a reliable, certified and bonded contractor. In Florida, you can contact the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (850-487-1395). To report unlicensed activity, call 1-866-532-1440). In Texas, you can contact the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation or American Contractors – Texas; however, not all contractor and building licenses seem to be listed here.

(5) File a claim with FEMA for either uninsured or uninsured losses online, or by phone (800-621-3362). While the focus is on homeowners, there is a question that should direct your application to the Small Business Administration for possible small business coverage.

I filed this morning and it takes less than 20 minutes to do this online. You can also call FEMA directly to file a claim. Even if you don’t qualify for assistance, you should still file a claim.

If you have a FEMA flood insurance policy, check the policy for filing procedures.

(6) Remember that if you don’t file a claim and do things to facilitate its successful conclusion (in your favor), the answer will always be “denied.”

I hope this helps some people get a better handle on their insurance matters in the wake of these two destructive storms. I will update this article as I come across additional insurance information.

For those in disaster areas, please take care and recover safely and quickly.

For those in any area, please think about contributing to reliable and effective charities. Remember, that after the initial rush to get utilities restored, cleanup begun, properties secured, and finding water, ice and food, people will need money to put their lives back together.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/15/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Dangerous Irma Targeting Naples (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

As of late yesterday afternoon, downtown Naples, U.S. Highway 41 (Tamiami Trail), and Naples/Collier County beaches resembled a ghost town. One could drive down Gulfshore Boulevard (a thoroughfare about a block or so from the beach) and perhaps see one or two cars. Fig. 1 shows the scene sans vehicles.

It was eerie.

But there was good cause for the lack of humankind. After a week of Hurricane Irma track uncertainty across the state of Florida (the large-scale storm track was “spot on;” the details across Florida, not so), computer and human thinking centered on a track along the west coast of Florida. Now, early Saturday morning (Sept. 9, 2017), the expected storm track is actually slightly west of Naples (i.e., with the center remaining over water). This is reminiscent of Donna (which destroyed the Naples Pier in 1960) and Charley (which slammed into Punta Gorda, north of Fort Myers in 2004).

This sets the stage for a worst-case scenario for Collier and Lee Counties.

Specifically,

high winds – much of Collier and Lee Counties will be impacted by triple digit sustained winds because the eye wall will be passing directly over both counties. Wind gusts can easily reach speeds that are 20 percent higher than sustained winds. Even though Irma has weakened slightly this morning (due in part to interaction with topography across Cuba), reintensification is expected later today (once Irma leaves Cuba).

heavy rainfall – since the right side (i.e., the wet side) of the storm will be affecting the two counties, roughly eight to 12 inches of rainfall (with locally higher amounts) is anticipated. Given recent heavy rainfall and flooding, these two-day rainfall totals may help replicate the recent flooding.

tornadoes – again the right side of the storm (mainly, the leading front right quadrant) is where tornadoes are most likely to form. That storm quadrant will be passing directly over Collier and Lee counties during the day on Sunday. Fortunately, most hurricane-generated tornadoes are weak and short-lived.

storm surge – is not an instantaneous (or wall-like) rise of water. Rather, it is the relentless onslaught of waves pushing water onshore, without the corresponding opportunity for water to flow back to the ocean. As a result, water levels can rise and push far inland.

Clearly storm surge will be a major risk for many areas. With a storm center over land, Naples and Fort Myers would not receive as much of an initial surge; with a storm offshore, an initial surge from the south is likely. Under either scenario, as the storm moves north of Collier and Lee Counties, hurricane force westerly winds will push additional salt water onto land areas for a longer period of time. Expected surge values will be in the six to 12 feet range.

High tides can add to the expected storm surge. Unfortunately, the turn to westerly winds will be occurring near the time of high tide (about 4:00p.m. E.D.T. on Sunday). Note that expected surge height values do not include any waves that may occur during the time of the storm surge.

Large areas of Collier County (and lesser areas in Lee and other west coast counties) are in the high surge flood risk. The map in Fig. 2 shows at surge risk areas due to a CAT 2 hurricane. Generally speaking the highest risk areas are south and west of State Highway 41.

This is a very large and very dangerous hurricane, one that can cause extensive damage to structures, trees, power lines and signs.

Since it’s too late to evacuate the area, it’s best for local residents and visitors to take shelter in sturdy structures or county-operated storm shelters. People living in mobile homes or manufactured housing should definitely leave these well in advance of the hurricane’s arrival.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/9/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Getting Ready For A Hurricane and more… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

There are plenty of “to do” lists out there addressing what to do to prepare for a hurricane, undertake during a hurricane, and address following a hurricane. Some of the more detailed lists can be found at the following web pages:

Weather Ready Nation

FEMA – Hurricane Harvey

American Red Cross

• Your local TV stations (if you are in hurricane country)

At each of these, be sure to look for sub-page links that may provide even more detailed information. FEMA’s – Hurricane Harvey web page (found under the main page “Navigation” menu bar) provides considerable tailored information specifically for Texans. Look for a similar FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) page to surface as Irma starts impacting the U.S. The Red Cross web site includes information about many topics, including how to locate loved ones who may be within a disaster area. In addition, many local TV stations distribute hurricane guides (Fig. 1), tracking charts and other informational items via local supermarkets and drug stores.

Today, I’m going to expound upon these lists a little, providing some insights as to WHY certain things are recommended. I’ll also add a few “out the eye wall” ideas. Note that no list can be totally inclusive.

Regardless of what you read or hear, hopefully, you’ll employ common sense and logic to your actions. Also, be sure you get your information from reliable sources. It’s at times like these that well-thought out plans need to be put into play. And remember that governmental and volunteer service organizations may not have the resources or the capabilities to assist you for days, maybe even weeks, after a major hurricane strike.

• If you don’t have an emergency kit, create one. It should include items that can be placed in heavy duty, sealable, freezer storage bags. Group items to facilitate finding what you may need. For example, you might have individual, labeled, plastic bags that contain medical records, medicines (may not able to refill after the storm), identification (e.g., passports, birth certificates), small denominational cash (ATM machines may not be working, if power loss occurs), cell phones and electronic appliances (sealed to keep out water) and even food and snacks (to avoid contamination with ground water). If possible, put these smaller plastic bags into larger sealable plastic bags or sealable containers.

• Although many companies (e.g., banks, credit cards, utilities) may work with you after the storm to accept late payments (without late fees), it’s just easier to make payments in advance.

• You will want to ensure that certain food items are refrigerated and/or frozen even if you lose power. One way is to ensure that temperature settings in both fridge compartments are set as low as possible BEFORE the storm strikes. If you have created frozen plastic soda or water bottles or sealable containers/freezer bags in advance, these can be used to chill the refrigerator or freezer compartments. Large chunks of ice stay colder longer than bags of individual ice cubes.

Another way is to cook some of the frozen food beforehand. It will be easier for cold hamburgers to survive, for example, than to keep ground beef frozen.

• The same chilling factor can be said for your home. Chill your home as low as possible before power is lost so you’ll have at least a slightly more comfortable environment for a longer period of time.

• Stock up on non-perishables. This includes water, crackers, nutrition/energy bars, breads, cereals, pretzels, chips, snacks, chocolate (my favorite), canned food (e.g., tuna fish), peanut butter (doesn’t require refrigeration), and even astronaut food (possibly available at a local science store). Don’t forget toilet paper, tissues, paper towels and plasticware.

• Speaking about toilet paper, be sure to fill a bathtub or two with water to help with toilet flushing.

• If you lose power and want hot water for coffee, hopefully you’ll have an accessible natural gas line or propane canister. We have a small camping stove and some small propane canisters that we plan on using in an outside location, if needed.

• If you have power banks or power sticks, be sure these are fully charged before the storm strikes. These low-cost power supplies can help power smaller appliances during power outages. Be sure your appliances are fully charged in advance, too. If you have an emergency generator (note that many condo associations don’t allow these), be sure it is charged and/or you have fuel available.

• Bring any lose or liftable objects indoors. This includes hanging or potted plants, patio furniture, trashcans and toys.

• DON’T use any type of tape to protect windows. Most tapes are not strong enough to prevent glass breakage or shattering. Even if you aren’t in a flood zone, consider the flooding potential. Move valuable or important objects, non-refrigerated or non-frozen foods, furniture and electronics to higher levels in your home.

• If you need to evacuate (either by car, mass transit or plane), consider doing this during daylight hours. It is easier to see roads, obstacles and other vehicles, especially if you wind up on local roadways. Be careful of evacuating into the projected path of the storm. You might wind up leaving a secure structure only to stay the night in a less structurally secure motel or other building (or find yourself stuck on clogged roadways).

Also, turn off gas lines, water lines and electricity before leaving.

If you can’t evacuate (or chose not to), then plan to “hunker down,” hopefully in a safe place (e.g., non-flood zone) and with neighbors or relatives. Be sure to move your car to higher ground (away from trees and power lines), if possible.

• If you are elderly, or are in a senior facility, moving out of a flood zone early is better than waiting. Several such facilities in the Houston area failed to evacuate and were flooded, putting the elderly patients at risk.

• Before the rains arrive, consider cleaning roof gutters and downspouts to facilitate the moving of water away from your home. If there are storm drains near your home, take a few moments (even it’s not your responsibility) and clean out any leaves, twigs and other debris), to enable faster drainage.

• If you have kids or pets and evacuate (and you know that pets are welcome at the evacuation center), think about bringing games, toys, books and other items that can add fun and psychological stability to the situation.

• And, just in case, think about board games, cards, and jigsaw puzzles as things to do to pass the time in a potentially non-electrical home universe. This list is long and getting longer. I will be updating it periodically, including valuable suggestions that may come from my readers. In advance, thanks for your comments and feedback.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/5/17

Uncategorized, weather

Tropical system affecting Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

While ex-hurricane Franklin dissipated quickly over Mexico yesterday, a much weaker tropical system began affecting Florida (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the system was located over the Bahamas and all its storminess remained well east of Florida. In fact, thanks to the dynamics of these “tropical waves,” places west of the wave (in the Northern Hemisphere) are typically afforded sunny skies.

That was the dichotomy across Florida yesterday. The wave was located across southeast Florida late in the morning. As a result, southeast Florida was under a dense cloud canopy with numerous showers and thunderstorms (Fig. 2); at the same time, southwest Florida was experiencing scattered cumulus clouds and some high-altitude cirrus clouds, blow off from the storms to the east (Fig. 3).

East of the wave, southerly wind flow at low levels was convergent (winds blowing together). This forced air to rise, and rising air often yields clouds and precipitation. West of the wave, low-level northeasterly winds were divergent, yielding sinking air and clearer skies.

As of mid-morning yesterday (Aug. 10, 2017), Fort Lauderdale / Hollywood Airport (FLL) had logged record-breaking rainfall (at least 3.36” versus the old record of 3.35” set in 2003; records for FLL date back to 1912). To highlight the variability of rainfall, nearby Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (FXE), just 9 miles away, received a scant 0.69” during roughly the same time period.

The “tropical wave” headed westward yesterday and brought some heavy thunderstorms to southwest Florida. One thunderstorm moved from north to south across Lee, Hendry, and Collier Counties, bringing  locally rainfall amounts, of an inch to more, to the area. The storm had a very pronounced outflow boundary, with a multi-layer “shelf cloud” marking its arrival (Fig. 4).

Today, with the tropical wave remaining over south Florida, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected. Again, rainfall amounts may be locally heavy, with ponding of water possible in usually vulnerable low-lying areas and on roadways.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 8/11/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

climate, geography, weather

A Tropical Storm Season Update – Aug. 1, 2017 (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

So far, the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) Basin (the North Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees West longitude) 2017 hurricane season is “on fire.” For July alone, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, ran at 2.5 times the recent monthly average. This made July 2017 the fifth most active July on record. On the other hand, the Atlantic Basin remained “on vacation.”

This isn’t unusual for the two basins, based on a long-term (50-year) seasonal study by Matt Bolton (student at St. Leo University, St. Leo, FL and intern at How The Weatherworks) and myself. The authors also found that inter-connectivities among the ocean basins worldwide tended to keep global tropical cyclone numbers fairly constant from year to year.

According to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC), the July 2017 EPAC basin saw five named storms, with two reaching major hurricane status and three having sustained winds reaching triple digits. Fernanda’s sustained winds peaked at 145 miles per hour.

Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) NHC climatology, three to four named storms typically form in the basin in July, with two becoming hurricanes and one of those reaching major hurricane intensity. This offers further testimony that July was an active time in the Eastern Pacific.

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico (considered the North Atlantic Basin), two named storms and one unnamed tropical depression formed in July 2017. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), one named storm typically forms in the basin in July, with a hurricane forming once every other year. ACE has been low, noted NHC, because all storms have been, “…relatively weak and short lived.” In fact, none of the five named Atlantic storms have had sustained winds above 60 miles per hour.

Fig. 1 summarizes activity in the two basins for the current hurricane season through July 31, 2017.

An NHC-compiled climatology for the period 1966 to 2009 indicated that the mid-point of tropical season in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins occurs during the late August to early September time period. Recent activity does not a hurricane season make. Hence, the current activity in either basin may or may not be representative of what the entire season will bring.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 8/6/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

communication, education, language, learning, organization

Effective Writing – a primer

There are many reasons for writing. One can write an online blog, a book, a magazine article, a letter to a government agency or company complaining about a service, a term paper, a letter to the editor, an application to college, an application for a job, and/or much more. Yet, while each of these has its own specific requirements, there are some general rules one can follow to be a demonstrably good writer and a more effective one. Here are some of those rules (with a caveat that this listing is a work in progress). Please note that items listed need not be done in any specific order and not all items may fit a particular writing activity (i.e., as appropriate is the rule that dominates).

  1. Recognize the type of writing you will be doing. If someone else defined the requirements for the writing, be sure to follow them. As appropriate, use personal and/or professional formats. For a job application, you will want to sell yourself; for a scientific journal article, you’ll want to document references and build to a valid, objective conclusion. If there are article or letter length requirements, follow these or your written efforts may be discarded. For example, one southwest Florida newspaper caps letters to the editor at 275 words. Write a 300 plus word letter and it won’t get published!
  2. Think about the message you want to convey. Why is it important that someone read about it? This holds for everything, even personal blogs.
  3. Start with a strong introductory sentence, and build from there. This ensures that the first part of your first paragraph, or your entire first paragraph, serves to grab the reader’s attention. In writing, this is known as a “hook.”
  4. Introduce your topic in the first paragraph. Ensure that the storyline builds appropriately.
  5. Provide strong supporting statements and/or links/references to prop up your main discussion. This enhances your discussion and also provides the reader with additional reading material, should they desire to learn more about your topic.
  6. Throughout, use active voice and action verbs (e.g., reading, working, organizing) rather than passive voice or “to be” verbs (e.g., was, had been, should).
  7. Avoid over-using transitional words (e.g., however, moreover, furthermore, therefore), and ending sentences with prepositions (e.g., “it’s what we talked about.”).
  8. Don’t repeat words and/or phrases; the English language has a plethora of adjectives, nouns, and verbs. Use them!
  9. Check grammar and spelling throughout (but don’t just rely on a computer-based spelling or grammar checker). Ensure that verb and subject are in agreement.
  10. Be clear and concise.
  11. Proofread your document more than once (keying on spelling, grammar, storyline, factual information, and unit conversions). This includes reading your writing out loud and/or having colleagues, family members or others proofread it, as well. If you are embarrassed to read aloud around other people, go to a quiet place to do so.
  12. Use an editing functionality (like “track changes” in Microsoft Word) to allow you to see changes as you make them, while still allowing the original text to remain. You can always accept changes at any point in the review/edit process (Fig. 1).
  13. Check for and eliminate “run-on” sentences. These are sentences that are, simply put, far too lengthy. A good rule of thumb for detecting these, keys on having to pause and take a breath while reading the sentence out loud. That pause point can suggest a location for a needed period or semi-colon.
  14. To be continued… Updates to this list will follow in the coming months. Stay tuned and check back for more!

We ask that readers of this article consider sharing other ideas for enhancing effective writing with us. We’ll consider all ideas that we receive.

In advance, thanks.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil and Matt Bolton

Originally posted 7/27/17

* Although we have been proactive advocates of writing for many years, this article has resulted from activities conducted at our Southwest Florida Weather Camp Program during July 2017.

 

photography, weather

Naples’ Sunsets – Part 1 (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

The Naples area has had a plethora of rainfall during the past 35 days. Locally, amounts have topped 25 inches at many locations, with one report in the Piper Cove area (of north Naples) in excess of 30 inches.

Lakes levels are up; mosquitoes are swarming; snails are heading for high ground (actually climbing on my garage door and outside home walls); and sunsets have bordered on spectacular.

It is the latter that warrants attention today.

About a week ago, I wrote about cloud watching in Naples. Today, I’m sharing just two recent sunset images that I captured from near my home in north Naples. Unfortunately, I wasn’t at the beach to capture unobstructed scenes. That’s on my agenda for this weekend; so please stay tuned.

The first image was taken just after sunset on Sat., Jul. 1, 2017. It shows the sun’s rays emanating from a near-horizon location and lighting the underside of leftover thunderstorm debris clouds (most likely altostratus at an altitude of about two and a half miles above the ground). Clouds near the horizon were blocking some of the sunlight and caused shaded/shadowed regions (which allowed easier viewing of the sun’s rays).

The second image (taken Thu., Jul. 6, 2017) also has crepuscular rays, these coming up from the lower left corner of the image. These rays are illuminating “fall streaks” or areas in which rain or snow is falling from the clouds. These streaks are more vertical than the crepuscular rays.

Obviously, the sky colors are something to behold, as well. But, that will be the subject of a future article.

So consider this article as the appetizer for more sunset stories. I plan on having some of the future sunset images include Gulf Coast beach perspectives.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 7/8/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

photography, weather

Cloud watching Naples style (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Most will agree that Naples (located in southwest Florida, just south the Fort Myers area, for some of my readers who might not be familiar with where I live) is a cloud watchers paradise, especially during the warmer and wetter months. The daily cycle of morning thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico, balanced by the parade of afternoon storms over land areas, provides an almost infinite variety of cloudscapes for photographers of all types. Thurs., Jun. 29, 2017, was just such a day.

In the morning, I had coffee with Susan Castle (Fig. 1), a writer by trade, but a photographer by chance. I reached out to her because Shelby Reynolds, a writer for the Naples Daily News, wrote about Susan and her love of the sky back on Jun. 3.

Castle moved to Naples some five ago and was immediately captivated by the sky. Through a series of chance opportunities and interactions, Susan wound up publishing her own book about the “Clouds of Old Naples” (Fig. 2). The book showcases an amazing display of sunsets, a few sunrises, an outpouring of convective storms (Fig. 3) and even her favorite, an all-alone, small cumulus-type cloud, with a cirrus backdrop. There’s even a rainbow thrown in for good measure. Many of the scenes in her book capture the cacophony of sunset colors, so often seen with a sun near the western horizon and the rest of the sky covered by thunderstorm debris clouds.

Easily recognizing patterning, Susan captured sky and ocean wave scenes, providing views that many of us would love to see. However, because she lives near the beach, it is easier for her to just look out and see the ever-unfolding sky and water symphony.

 Prior to meeting with Susan, I was fortunate enough to capture pictures of a line of thunderstorms just offshore from Naples. Not close enough to the beach to mimic Susan’s photography, I went to the top of a downtown Naples parking garage. The storms were still spectacular (Fig. 4 and Fig. 5).

Then later in the day, Alison Sciacqua, a colleague here in Naples, pulled out her iPhone and started showing me beach scene sky pictures that she had recently taken (Fig. 6).

So, this is a request, for those of you who aim your cameras and cell phones skyward, to think about our Sky Awareness Week Facebook page. While SAW is a designated week in April to focus on the sky, every day is a great day to “look up!” And I’d love for the Facebook page to be a place where anyone can visit and share and also see what others have shared.

 

 

If you opt to post, please add a copyright or ownership notice onto the lower corner of the photo, if possible. Should I grab any of the photos to use in an article, I will be sure to credit you.

Until my next article about the sky (and it will be coming soon, I promise), I hope your sky watching time provides you unparalleled enjoyment. If the forecast for the next seven days is any indication, many across the eastern half of the U.S. will be looking upward at the ever-changing cloud show.

NOTE:  People interested in getting a signed copy of Susan Castle’s book can contact the author directly at: susanfcastle.com or just susanfcastle@icloud.com

People (especially earth science teachers) interested in obtaining a full-color cloud chart can contact How The Weatherworks at learning@weatherworks.com 

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 7/2/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

technology, weather

Rain temporarily leaves Southwest Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

The focus during tropical cyclone events is typically on high winds, coastal storm surge, heavy coastal and inland rainfall, and possible flooding. However, if one is located far enough away from the storm’s circulation, atmospheric processes may lead to less rainfall. Such is the case for southwest Florida during the past few days. And while rainfall didn’t vanish entirely from the southwest Florida area, it certainly dropped off dramatically.

Fig. 1 shows the upper level wind flow as determined by weather satellite and radiosonde (weather balloon) data. Computer programs can track cloud elements and compute their motion (and, hence, winds). Combining radiosonde wind and temperature data and infrared satellite cloud temperature measurements, computer programs can assign winds into specific altitude bands.

Late on Jun. 21, 2017, it is easy to see this altitudinal variation near Tropical Storm Cindy (located just offshore from the Texas-Louisiana coast). Winds shown in green show a counterclockwise (low-pressure) circulation. Mid-altitude winds are tagged to be between 20,000 feet to 25,000 feet above ground level or at pressure altitudes of 350mb to 500mb. Pressure is measured in millibars (mb) and decreases as one goes higher in the atmosphere (due to less air above).

To the north and east of Cindy’s mid-altitude circulation, higher altitude winds (shown in blue) actually spin slightly clockwise (indicating a high-pressure system). This differential circulation pattern is often found in well-developed tropical storms and hurricanes.

This upper-level circulation leads to a ridge or high-pressure system to the east of the storm’s circulation. In this high-pressure system, sinking air dominates. This is in contrast to the rising air motion (and associated clouds and precipitation) within Cindy’s circulation. Note that precipitation can still extend quite a distance from the storm’s center, but is mostly confined within the low- and mid-level counter-clockwise circulation pattern (Fig. 2). As a result of these upper and lower level circulation considerations, southwest Florida experienced less cloudiness and less shower and thunderstorm activity during the past two days.

As Cindy landfalls, weakens and moves to the northeast (see Fig. 2 – the elongated shape of the storm’s circulation is oriented in the direction of future movement), the upper ridge over Florida will slowly weaken and a more usual daytime shower and thunderstorm pattern will return to southwest Florida.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 6/22/17

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