climate, weather

Arctic Air Arrives (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Apologies to my readers. In my haste to publish this pre-Christmas, I inadvertently omitted the all-important figures. They’ve now been included (1/2/18).

It’s time to kiss the autumnal warmth of the past few weeks across the Central U.S. goodbye, as arctic air arrives in the U.S. with a vengeance. For example, Minneapolis, MN has averaged 5.4 degrees above average through the 22nd of the month, with at least 6 days in double-digit warmth. That is slated for replacement with temperatures some fifteen to twenty degrees below average, including a forecast average of ZERO on Christmas Day.

Tulsa, OK offers similar testimony. After averaging some 6.7 degrees above average through the 23rd of this month (with 9 days in double-digit warmth), look for readings to tumble to some 5 degrees below average this coming week. After New Year’s, an even colder air mass could invade the Central U.S and even the southern Plains.

This transition is linked to a change in the upper level wind pattern from “zonal” (more west to east) flow to “high amplitude” (north and south) wind currents (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). Notice, in Fig. 2, the formation of a “polar vortex” over Hudson Bay and a wind flow source region from north of the Arctic Circle.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 12/24/17; updated 1/2/18 (added omitted figures)

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

communication, education, geography, observations, psychology, social sciences, weather

Time To Participate in a Weather Survey? (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Matt Bolton (my intern graduate and now professional colleague) and I have been discussing, for years, public understanding of weather. The discussion grew out of our hurricane and other research efforts, pre-college-level weather camp programs, and interactions with social scientists at professional weather conferences.

Matt, now a senior at St. Leo University is majoring in psychology and working hard to link social and psychological sciences with the weather sphere.

Toward this end, Matt has just posted a survey (Fig. 1) to further his research into the public’s weather understanding and I’m trying to help him get visibility for this survey. He’d like to have a thousand people or more participate. So, please feel free to take the survey and then share the link to this article (or to the survey directly) with friends, family, colleagues, and others via e-mail, social media and/or other modes. Note that there are no right or wrong answers. Matt would simply appreciate honest answers to the questions.

Anyone 18 years of age or older, living anywhere in the United States, can complete the survey. People with both high and low weather interests are invited to participate.

Here’s the link to the survey (and to a further discussion of the survey’s purpose).  The survey should take about 20 minutes to complete. In advance, on behalf of Matt, I thank you for your involvement.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 12/21/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.