More heavy rainfall for southwest Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

H. Michael Mogil June 15, 2017

Rainfall for June (now almost only half over) is already at rarified levels. Many locations across southwest Florida have logged 15 to 20 inch values. And more rainfall is anticipated.

In fact, for the Naples area (my home base), the official National Weather Service (NWS) forecast is calling for 50 to 70 percent daytime rainfall probabilities each day for the next week.

And, no wonder. The atmosphere above the now, so-called “Sunshine State,” is overburdened with moisture (Fig. 1). According to NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), precipitable water (PW) was at 1.92 inches at Miami, FL early this Thursday morning. PW is the measure of all water vapor in a column above a radiosonde (weather balloon) sounding location. For Jun. 15, the climatological average PW at Miami, FL is 1.66 inches and a 90 percentile PW is 2.00 inches. In short, if all the water vapor above a point could be condensed into liquid water and then squeezed out (like a sponge), and no water vapor moved in or out of the atmospheric column, 1.92 inches of rain would result.

Further, winds throughout the atmospheric column from the ground to some 50,000 feet above ground level are less than 15 miles per hour. That means that any storms that develop will not move very fast.

While outflow boundaries (areas marking where low-level winds blowing out of thunderstorm areas meet the environmental air mass) may interact with other outflow boundaries and sea breezes to enhance thunderstorm formation or localized movement, most storms will be slow-moving, prolific, rainfall producers. Many locations could see short-period downpours of one to two inches or more during the upcoming week or until the weather pattern changes.

Originally posted 6/15/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

Tags: 3.14, 99L, AC, AccuWeather, ACE, ACT, advisory, Africa, agriculture, Air Force, air mass, air quality, aircraft, airline, airport, Alabama, Alaska, algal bloom, altitude, altocumulus, answer, Antarctica, anti-crepuscular rays, app, Apple, application, arctic, Arizona, Arkansas, ASD, ashcloud, Atlanta, Atlantic, Atlantic Ocean, autism, autumn, average, aviation, awareness, Bachmann, Bahamas, balloon, Barra, beach, beacherosion, Bermuda, BF, Big Bend, bing, biology, biomes, birds, Black Friday, blizzard, blocking, bomb, Bonita Springs, Boston, Bow, bow echo, brain, Broward, Buffalo, Business, California, calorie, Canada, Candy Crush, canyon, Cape Cod, Cape Verde, CapitalOne, car, Caribbean, Carolinas, Carson, cash back, CAT 1, CAT 5, CategoryFive, CategoryOne, Central Plains, Central U.S., Charlotte, check, checking, Chicago, chill, chilly, Christmas, Christmas Star, circles, cirrus, climate, climate change, climate zones, climatology, cloud, clouds, Coast, coastal flooding, COCORAHS, cold, cold front, college testing, Collier, Collier County, color-blindness, Colorado, Common Core, communication, computer, conjunction, contractor, convection, converge, convergence, cool, cooling degree days, Coronavirus, coverage, covid-19, covid19, credit, creditcards, crepuscular, crepuscular rays, crime, Cristobal, critic, CS/HB 7069, cumulonimbus, cumulus, current, Customer, customer service, cyclone, Dakotas, Darby, data, date, debate, deep south, degree days, Denver, deposition, Des Moines, desert, dew, Dew point, dewpoint, diameter, donut, Doppler radar, Dorian, Dothan, downburst, downdraft, downslope, drought, Dry, dry line, Drying, Dunkin’ Donuts, dust, e-mail, Earth, east, east coast, Eastern Pacific, Eastern Pacific Ocean, eastern US, eddy, Education, Emily, England, enhanced imagery, entrepreneur, equation, erosion, Eta, Europe, evacuation, evaporate, evaporative, eye, eye wall, fall streaks, family, fat, Federal, filters, fire, fire weather, fires, first responders, fish, FL, flash flood, flash flooding, flood, flooding, Florida, FLWX, focal point, fog, folder, folklore, forest fires, Fort Myers, freeze, freezing rain, frequent flyer, front, Frost, Ft. Myers, funnel, funnel cloud, gale, gale warnings, gales, game, garden, garden hose, Gaston, gauge, George Clooney, Georgia, geostationary, GLM, global warming, GM, gmail, GOES, GOES-16, GOES-R, GOESR, google, Gore, government, gradient, Great Lakes, Great Salt Lake, Greenhouse gas, ground fog, Groundhog, grushfire, Guadalupe Mountains, Guadalupe Peak, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, gust, gusts, hail, hair, Haiti, Harvey, Hawaii, Hawking, health, heat, heating degree days, heavy rain, heavy rainfall, heavy snow, hemisphere, Hendry, Hermine, High, High Plains, high surf, high temperature, high wind warnings, high-pressure, home, homework, Honolulu, hose, Houston, humid, humidity, hurricane, hurricane hunter aircraft, Hurricane Matthew, hurricanes, I75, Ian, ice, ice cap, ice storm, Illinois, image, images, inch, India, Indiana, Indianapolis, infrared, instability, Insurance, Intermountain, IOS, IOS 7, Iowa, iphone, IR, Ireland, Irma, IRS, isothermal layer, Jamaica, Japan, jet stream, Jupiter, Kansas, Karen, kitchen, koppen, Krispy Kreme, lake, lake effect, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, Lake Tahoe, lake-effect snow, latitude, law, LD, learn, learning, Lee, Lee County, life, lift, Lightning, lightning detection, logic, Long Island, longshore current, Louisiana, low, low temperature, low-pressure, low-pressure system, low-pressure systems, lows, luggage, Macy's, mail, Maine, mall, Marco Island, Mars, Maryland, Massachusetts, math, Mathworks, Matthew, Maui, MCC, MCS, media, Memorial Day, mentor, mentoring, meso-cyclone, mesocyclone, mesoscale, Mesoscale Convective System, meteorological bomb, meteorologist, meteorology, Mexico, Miami, Michigan, microns, mid-atlantic, Midwest, military, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Mississippi, Mississippi River valley, Mississippi Valley, misture, mixing, models, moisture, monsoon, Montague, Montana, moods, moon, mountain, mountains, movie, Naples, NASA, Nate, National Climatic Data Center, National Hurricane Center, natural world, nature, Nebraska, Nevada, New England, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, news, Newton, NHC, NOAA, nor’easter, North Carolina, Northeast, northern, northern hemisphere, Northern Plains, number, numbers, NWS, Oahu, Obamacare, observation, observations, observe, observer, Ohio, Ohio Valley, Okeechobee, Oklahoma, omega, omega block, omega high, online, Ophelia, order, organize, organizing, OS, outbreak, outflow, outflow boundaries, outflow boundary, outlook, Pacific Northwest, Palm Beach, Panhandle, paper, parade, parent, pattern, patterns, Pavlof, pedometer, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, photographs, photography, Pi, PiDay, Plains, polar, polar vortex, political, ponding, precipitable water, precipitation, preparedness, pressure, pressure gradient, primary, problem, Puerto Rico, Punxsutawney Phil, question, radar, radiosonde, radius, rain, Rain shadow, rainbow, rainbows, raindrop, raindrops, rainfall, rainshadow, rainy, record, records, Red Flag Warnings, red tide, responsibility, review, reward, rewards, Rhode Island, ridge, ridges, rip current, ripple, risk, Rockies, Rocky Mountains, RSW Airport, Russia, safety, Saffir-Simpson, San Diego, San Francisco, Sandy, Santa Ana, SAT, satellite, Saturn, scandal, school, science, Scotland, SDO, sea breeze, sea surface temperature, seabreeze, seas, Season, seasonal, seasons, service, severe, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, shadow, Shinseki, shower, showers, shutdown, Sidewalk, Sierra Nevada, Sky, sky awareness, sky awareness week, sky optics, sky watching, sleet, small craft advisory, smoke, snow, snow removal, snowfall, Snowstorm, social, sounding, south, South Carolina, South Dakota, Southeast, Southeast U.S., southern Plains, southwest, southwest Florida, space, space weather, Spaghetti plot, SPC, spiders, spiral bands, spirals, spotters, spring, St. Cloud, Starbucks, statistics, Steps, StevenHawking, stock, storm, storm damage, storm surge, storm warnings, storms, Stormsurge, STRIIV, structural current, student, students, study, sub-freezing, sublimation, subsidence, summer, summer camp, summer camps, sun, sun dog, sunset, sunspot, Super Tuesday, supercells, supercomputer, surge, SW Florida, Swells, Tampa, technology, teen, temperature, Tennessee, Tennessee River Valley, Tennessee Valley, test, test-taking, tests, Texas, thanksgiving, The Perfect Storm, The Weather Channel, think, thinking, thundersnow, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, time, tornado, tornado warnings, tornado watches, tornadoes, train, training, transportation, travel, tropic, tropical, tropical cyclone, tropical storm, tropical storms, tropical wave, tropical weather, tropicalstorm, tropics, troughs, Tug Hill Plateau, tutoring, twas, TWC, twilight, typhoon, U.K., U.S., UK, unenhanced imagery, updraft, Upper level, upper low, Upper winds, upper-level winds, US, Utah, vacation, vegetation, Venus, veteran, virga, Virginia, virtual, virus, visibility, visible, vocabulary, volcano, vortex, voting, Waikiki, walk, warm, warmth, warning, warnings, warranty, Washington DC, watch, watches, water, water cycle, water vapor, waterspout, Watertown, wave, waves, weather, weather camp, WeatherNation, west, West Coast, West Virginia, Wet-bulb effect, wildfire, wind, wind chill, wind shear, winds, windy, winter, winter storm, Wipha, Wisconsin, word, work, WRN, WV, Wyoming, Yucatan Peninsula,

You May Also Like:

Ian threatens western Cuba and much of Florida

A Stormy Weather Day for Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Weird cloud – Interesting story! (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Eta’s zig-zag track continues (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)