Yesterday morning, I provided information about the flooding potential for southwest Florida. At the time, I indicated that rainfall totals for the upcoming 36 to 42 hours would be in the two to five inch range and that this was atop the nearly two inches that fell across Collier and Lee Counties overnight into Wednesday morning. So far (Fig. 1), total storm rainfall based on radar estimates is in the two and half to four inch range with additional heavy rainfall expected today.
With the stationary front still lingering (today it is across south Florida between Naples and Miami), abundant tropical moisture, and a nearby very strong jet stream, more heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the offing. Additional rainfall totals could reach or exceed three inches according to computer and forecaster guidance. With individual showers and thunderstorms moving over the same areas (an event known as “training”), flooding is possible. Hence, a flood watch has been posted for today across much of south Florida (Fig. 2).
Once the front clears the area (and the upper level jet stream moves slightly to the east), skies will clear (at least partially) and temperatures will drop back below seasonal levels…for at least a day or two. With the jet stream nearby, don’t surprised if there is more cloudiness than sunshine during the next five to six days.
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 1/28/16