consumerism, weather

Insurance Matters – Post Irma and Post Harvey (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

During the past two weeks, I spent many hours helping Dave Elliott and his team at WGUF-FM (98.9) radio here in Collier County, FL. Stephen Johnson (control room) and Scott Fish (101.9 – Gator Country radio, simulcast with WGUF) rounded out the team.

While my focus was weather, I also did some research and reporting on preparedness and post storm recovery matters. I also listened to discussions among our team and calls from listeners. I’d like to start sharing some these here to help Irma victims (and also those in Texas affected by Harvey).

This article will address a few hurricane-related insurance matters. Before beginning, let me note that I am not an insurance adjuster or a structural engineer. The items described here are simply to get readers to think things through before they either ignore insurance or go crazy about dealing with it. Always, get professional advice before addressing any matters involving insurance.

(1) Read your insurance policy BEFORE contacting your agent (Fig. 1). If you don’t have a clue about policy coverages and exclusions, I predict that you will get frustrated quickly.

(2) Take pictures BEFORE cleanup. Make sure you show water levels and the wrack (debris) line, tree damage, roof tiles or shingles lying on your lawn (where they fell) with your house in the background of the image. These pictures can help your adjuster piece things together long after the storm’s visual impacts disappear.

(3) Call your insurance agent, but, be prepared for long wait times. Insurance companies typically have agents available to help you. However, when the number of potential claimants becomes large, agent access can become difficult. Some companies are setting up mobile customer support centers in affected communities. Check with your insurance company, if they haven’t already e-mailed you information.

(4) Find out what you can do to mitigate further damage, even before your claim is approved. Often, putting blue tarp on a roof and covering damaged windows are encouraged. Be sure that anyone you contract with is a reliable, certified and bonded contractor. In Florida, you can contact the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (850-487-1395). To report unlicensed activity, call 1-866-532-1440). In Texas, you can contact the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation or American Contractors – Texas; however, not all contractor and building licenses seem to be listed here.

(5) File a claim with FEMA for either uninsured or uninsured losses online, or by phone (800-621-3362). While the focus is on homeowners, there is a question that should direct your application to the Small Business Administration for possible small business coverage.

I filed this morning and it takes less than 20 minutes to do this online. You can also call FEMA directly to file a claim. Even if you don’t qualify for assistance, you should still file a claim.

If you have a FEMA flood insurance policy, check the policy for filing procedures.

(6) Remember that if you don’t file a claim and do things to facilitate its successful conclusion (in your favor), the answer will always be “denied.”

I hope this helps some people get a better handle on their insurance matters in the wake of these two destructive storms. I will update this article as I come across additional insurance information.

For those in disaster areas, please take care and recover safely and quickly.

For those in any area, please think about contributing to reliable and effective charities. Remember, that after the initial rush to get utilities restored, cleanup begun, properties secured, and finding water, ice and food, people will need money to put their lives back together.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/15/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Dangerous Irma Targeting Naples (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

As of late yesterday afternoon, downtown Naples, U.S. Highway 41 (Tamiami Trail), and Naples/Collier County beaches resembled a ghost town. One could drive down Gulfshore Boulevard (a thoroughfare about a block or so from the beach) and perhaps see one or two cars. Fig. 1 shows the scene sans vehicles.

It was eerie.

But there was good cause for the lack of humankind. After a week of Hurricane Irma track uncertainty across the state of Florida (the large-scale storm track was “spot on;” the details across Florida, not so), computer and human thinking centered on a track along the west coast of Florida. Now, early Saturday morning (Sept. 9, 2017), the expected storm track is actually slightly west of Naples (i.e., with the center remaining over water). This is reminiscent of Donna (which destroyed the Naples Pier in 1960) and Charley (which slammed into Punta Gorda, north of Fort Myers in 2004).

This sets the stage for a worst-case scenario for Collier and Lee Counties.

Specifically,

high winds – much of Collier and Lee Counties will be impacted by triple digit sustained winds because the eye wall will be passing directly over both counties. Wind gusts can easily reach speeds that are 20 percent higher than sustained winds. Even though Irma has weakened slightly this morning (due in part to interaction with topography across Cuba), reintensification is expected later today (once Irma leaves Cuba).

heavy rainfall – since the right side (i.e., the wet side) of the storm will be affecting the two counties, roughly eight to 12 inches of rainfall (with locally higher amounts) is anticipated. Given recent heavy rainfall and flooding, these two-day rainfall totals may help replicate the recent flooding.

tornadoes – again the right side of the storm (mainly, the leading front right quadrant) is where tornadoes are most likely to form. That storm quadrant will be passing directly over Collier and Lee counties during the day on Sunday. Fortunately, most hurricane-generated tornadoes are weak and short-lived.

storm surge – is not an instantaneous (or wall-like) rise of water. Rather, it is the relentless onslaught of waves pushing water onshore, without the corresponding opportunity for water to flow back to the ocean. As a result, water levels can rise and push far inland.

Clearly storm surge will be a major risk for many areas. With a storm center over land, Naples and Fort Myers would not receive as much of an initial surge; with a storm offshore, an initial surge from the south is likely. Under either scenario, as the storm moves north of Collier and Lee Counties, hurricane force westerly winds will push additional salt water onto land areas for a longer period of time. Expected surge values will be in the six to 12 feet range.

High tides can add to the expected storm surge. Unfortunately, the turn to westerly winds will be occurring near the time of high tide (about 4:00p.m. E.D.T. on Sunday). Note that expected surge height values do not include any waves that may occur during the time of the storm surge.

Large areas of Collier County (and lesser areas in Lee and other west coast counties) are in the high surge flood risk. The map in Fig. 2 shows at surge risk areas due to a CAT 2 hurricane. Generally speaking the highest risk areas are south and west of State Highway 41.

This is a very large and very dangerous hurricane, one that can cause extensive damage to structures, trees, power lines and signs.

Since it’s too late to evacuate the area, it’s best for local residents and visitors to take shelter in sturdy structures or county-operated storm shelters. People living in mobile homes or manufactured housing should definitely leave these well in advance of the hurricane’s arrival.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/9/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Getting Ready For A Hurricane and more… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

There are plenty of “to do” lists out there addressing what to do to prepare for a hurricane, undertake during a hurricane, and address following a hurricane. Some of the more detailed lists can be found at the following web pages:

Weather Ready Nation

FEMA – Hurricane Harvey

American Red Cross

• Your local TV stations (if you are in hurricane country)

At each of these, be sure to look for sub-page links that may provide even more detailed information. FEMA’s – Hurricane Harvey web page (found under the main page “Navigation” menu bar) provides considerable tailored information specifically for Texans. Look for a similar FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) page to surface as Irma starts impacting the U.S. The Red Cross web site includes information about many topics, including how to locate loved ones who may be within a disaster area. In addition, many local TV stations distribute hurricane guides (Fig. 1), tracking charts and other informational items via local supermarkets and drug stores.

Today, I’m going to expound upon these lists a little, providing some insights as to WHY certain things are recommended. I’ll also add a few “out the eye wall” ideas. Note that no list can be totally inclusive.

Regardless of what you read or hear, hopefully, you’ll employ common sense and logic to your actions. Also, be sure you get your information from reliable sources. It’s at times like these that well-thought out plans need to be put into play. And remember that governmental and volunteer service organizations may not have the resources or the capabilities to assist you for days, maybe even weeks, after a major hurricane strike.

• If you don’t have an emergency kit, create one. It should include items that can be placed in heavy duty, sealable, freezer storage bags. Group items to facilitate finding what you may need. For example, you might have individual, labeled, plastic bags that contain medical records, medicines (may not able to refill after the storm), identification (e.g., passports, birth certificates), small denominational cash (ATM machines may not be working, if power loss occurs), cell phones and electronic appliances (sealed to keep out water) and even food and snacks (to avoid contamination with ground water). If possible, put these smaller plastic bags into larger sealable plastic bags or sealable containers.

• Although many companies (e.g., banks, credit cards, utilities) may work with you after the storm to accept late payments (without late fees), it’s just easier to make payments in advance.

• You will want to ensure that certain food items are refrigerated and/or frozen even if you lose power. One way is to ensure that temperature settings in both fridge compartments are set as low as possible BEFORE the storm strikes. If you have created frozen plastic soda or water bottles or sealable containers/freezer bags in advance, these can be used to chill the refrigerator or freezer compartments. Large chunks of ice stay colder longer than bags of individual ice cubes.

Another way is to cook some of the frozen food beforehand. It will be easier for cold hamburgers to survive, for example, than to keep ground beef frozen.

• The same chilling factor can be said for your home. Chill your home as low as possible before power is lost so you’ll have at least a slightly more comfortable environment for a longer period of time.

• Stock up on non-perishables. This includes water, crackers, nutrition/energy bars, breads, cereals, pretzels, chips, snacks, chocolate (my favorite), canned food (e.g., tuna fish), peanut butter (doesn’t require refrigeration), and even astronaut food (possibly available at a local science store). Don’t forget toilet paper, tissues, paper towels and plasticware.

• Speaking about toilet paper, be sure to fill a bathtub or two with water to help with toilet flushing.

• If you lose power and want hot water for coffee, hopefully you’ll have an accessible natural gas line or propane canister. We have a small camping stove and some small propane canisters that we plan on using in an outside location, if needed.

• If you have power banks or power sticks, be sure these are fully charged before the storm strikes. These low-cost power supplies can help power smaller appliances during power outages. Be sure your appliances are fully charged in advance, too. If you have an emergency generator (note that many condo associations don’t allow these), be sure it is charged and/or you have fuel available.

• Bring any lose or liftable objects indoors. This includes hanging or potted plants, patio furniture, trashcans and toys.

• DON’T use any type of tape to protect windows. Most tapes are not strong enough to prevent glass breakage or shattering. Even if you aren’t in a flood zone, consider the flooding potential. Move valuable or important objects, non-refrigerated or non-frozen foods, furniture and electronics to higher levels in your home.

• If you need to evacuate (either by car, mass transit or plane), consider doing this during daylight hours. It is easier to see roads, obstacles and other vehicles, especially if you wind up on local roadways. Be careful of evacuating into the projected path of the storm. You might wind up leaving a secure structure only to stay the night in a less structurally secure motel or other building (or find yourself stuck on clogged roadways).

Also, turn off gas lines, water lines and electricity before leaving.

If you can’t evacuate (or chose not to), then plan to “hunker down,” hopefully in a safe place (e.g., non-flood zone) and with neighbors or relatives. Be sure to move your car to higher ground (away from trees and power lines), if possible.

• If you are elderly, or are in a senior facility, moving out of a flood zone early is better than waiting. Several such facilities in the Houston area failed to evacuate and were flooded, putting the elderly patients at risk.

• Before the rains arrive, consider cleaning roof gutters and downspouts to facilitate the moving of water away from your home. If there are storm drains near your home, take a few moments (even it’s not your responsibility) and clean out any leaves, twigs and other debris), to enable faster drainage.

• If you have kids or pets and evacuate (and you know that pets are welcome at the evacuation center), think about bringing games, toys, books and other items that can add fun and psychological stability to the situation.

• And, just in case, think about board games, cards, and jigsaw puzzles as things to do to pass the time in a potentially non-electrical home universe. This list is long and getting longer. I will be updating it periodically, including valuable suggestions that may come from my readers. In advance, thanks for your comments and feedback.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/5/17

Uncategorized, weather

Tropical system affecting Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

While ex-hurricane Franklin dissipated quickly over Mexico yesterday, a much weaker tropical system began affecting Florida (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the system was located over the Bahamas and all its storminess remained well east of Florida. In fact, thanks to the dynamics of these “tropical waves,” places west of the wave (in the Northern Hemisphere) are typically afforded sunny skies.

That was the dichotomy across Florida yesterday. The wave was located across southeast Florida late in the morning. As a result, southeast Florida was under a dense cloud canopy with numerous showers and thunderstorms (Fig. 2); at the same time, southwest Florida was experiencing scattered cumulus clouds and some high-altitude cirrus clouds, blow off from the storms to the east (Fig. 3).

East of the wave, southerly wind flow at low levels was convergent (winds blowing together). This forced air to rise, and rising air often yields clouds and precipitation. West of the wave, low-level northeasterly winds were divergent, yielding sinking air and clearer skies.

As of mid-morning yesterday (Aug. 10, 2017), Fort Lauderdale / Hollywood Airport (FLL) had logged record-breaking rainfall (at least 3.36” versus the old record of 3.35” set in 2003; records for FLL date back to 1912). To highlight the variability of rainfall, nearby Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (FXE), just 9 miles away, received a scant 0.69” during roughly the same time period.

The “tropical wave” headed westward yesterday and brought some heavy thunderstorms to southwest Florida. One thunderstorm moved from north to south across Lee, Hendry, and Collier Counties, bringing  locally rainfall amounts, of an inch to more, to the area. The storm had a very pronounced outflow boundary, with a multi-layer “shelf cloud” marking its arrival (Fig. 4).

Today, with the tropical wave remaining over south Florida, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected. Again, rainfall amounts may be locally heavy, with ponding of water possible in usually vulnerable low-lying areas and on roadways.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 8/11/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

hydrology, weather

South Florida Rainfall Records Going Under Water (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

A few days ago, I noted that southwest Florida “rainfall for June 2017 (now almost only half over) was at rarified levels.” Since I’ve had a chance to compare observed rainfall to longer-term records (using the NOAA Regional Climate Center data base), it is clear that the deluge so far this month has started to submerge many existing records.

Recognize, however, that many locations do not have official long-term records; hence, the numbers shown for record comparisons are limited to only a few sites. And, even for some of these, records are rather short-term. Regardless, the numbers are more than impressive across the entire region. They are even more impressive when one realizes that less than a month ago, everyone was worried about drought and forest fires!

Looking at a radar – rain gauge data mix (Fig. 1), it is easy to see where the heaviest rainfall has occurred. Collier and Broward Counties have some locations with an excess of 20 inches so far this month.

Thus far this month (through early morning on Jun.18, 2017), Naples Airport, FL (APF) has received 11.40 inches of precipitation. The average for the entire month of June is about 8.80 inches. Based on the Naples area period of record (1942-2017), the 11.40 inches ranks 17th on the list of highest monthly amounts. The record June rainfall occurred in 2005 (20.51 inches); the second highest amount was recorded in 1947 (17.97 inches).

Regional Southwest Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers has received 12.96 inches so far this month, making this the 5th wettest June at RSW (records have been kept there only since 1998). The record occurred in 2005 (20.85 inches).

With an even shorter period of record, Marco Island has already measured 20.90 inches of rain this June. The record (25.21 inches) also occurred in 2005.

Rainfall, year-to-date, at Marco Island is now at roughly 60% of the total average yearly rainfall of about 50 inches.

Given the weather pattern that we are in and the abundant tropical moisture supply, it is likely that some of these long-term records could be challenged and broken as the month continues. And, to think, there’s still 13 days left in the month!

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 6/18/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather

SWFL-GWCC South Florida’s Cowbell fire grows rapidly (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Discovered on Mar. 30, a relatively small brush fire in South Florida’s Big Cypress National Preserve (eastern Collier County) grew slowly during the following week. By Apr. 8, the Cow Bell fire (so named, because it is near the Cow Bell Strand within the Big Cypress National Park – Fig. 1) had consumed roughly 600 acres. On Sun., Apr. 9, thanks to an increase in easterly winds (and continued dry weather), the blaze exploded. By late Sunday, the blaze had consumed more than 8,000 acres. For comparison, this fire is slightly larger than the burned acreage from the Picayune Strand Fire (western Collier County) back in early- to mid-March. Fig. 2 shows the smoke plume from just north of the Cow Bell fire area.

During much of its lifetime, the fire has been moving westward across “Alligator Alley,” mostly parallel to Interstate Highway (I-75). Campgrounds in the Bear Island area, within the Preserve, are being evacuated. Due to the rapid spread of the fire, fire-fighting crews have had to reassess possible containment lines for stopping the fire’s westward movement.

Maximum smoke impacts were expected closest to the fire, with smoke also impacting I-75 between mile markers 55 through 80. On the evenings of Apr. 9 and 10, around sunset, smoke smell permeated the air in parts of North Naples (more than 50 miles from the fire). Smoke from the fire was also evident in the skies over North Naples. Fig. 3 shows the smoke plume as shown on the NWS Miami radar during mid-afternoon on Apr. 9.

Lacking any rainfall for the foreseeable future, and given the pineland and cypress habitat that is ablaze, the hundreds of fire-fighters engaged in battling the fire will have their hands full. Fortunately, there are only a few structures anywhere near the fire area, at this time.

Officials have urged all drivers on I-75 to use extreme caution and to check road conditions before starting travel across the “Alley.” The highest likelihood for experiencing roadway visibility restrictions due to smoke will be between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. daily. This is the time window during which an inversion, a low-level temperature pattern with warmer air overlying cooler air, is most likely to trap smoke near the ground.

Big Cypress National Preserve officials have instituted the following closures:

  • Gator Head Campground
  • Bear Island Campground
  • Jeep Campground
  • The road leading into the Sanctuary except to residents
  • All trails between state road 29 and L-28 Canal including the Florida Trail
  • All public lands west of the L-28 Canal
  • All public lands east of state road 29
  • All public lands south of the Preserve boundary
  • All public lands north of Alligator Alley

In addition, a temporary flight restriction has been placed over the Cowbell Fire (ground level to 3,000 feet mean sea level) to provide a safe environment for fire-fighting aviation operations. In addition to 17 fire engines, at least seven helicopters and two water tanker aircraft are involved in firefighting efforts. The area will likely be expanded to accommodate increased fire growth.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 4/11/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

weather

Heavy rainfall gradients and rainfall rates (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Across Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of far East Texas, torrential rainfall occurred Sunday and Sunday night. Widespread one to four inch rainfall amounts were reported, with some locations noting amounts of six, eight and even ten inches (Fig. 1). Alexandria, LA, in the west-central part of the state, reported more than nine inches over a nearly 12-hour period, with nearly continuous thunderstorm activity for a roughly 8-hour period (Fig. 2).

By early Tuesday, the large-scale storm system responsible for the storminess has moved well to the northeast and the heaviest rainfall had moved well to the east of The Pelican State. In the wake of the Sunday rainfall activity, flood warnings remain in effect for many areas in Louisiana that received excessive rainfall or are downstream from these areas (Fig. 3).

Two things are striking in Fig. 2. First, there are numerous bands of heavy rainfall aligned southwest-to-northeast. These mark the locations in which thunderstorm lines became at least somewhat stationary. Then thunderstorms, moving along the line, dumped successive bursts of heavy rainfall. This scenario, in which numerous storms move across the same area, is known as “training.”

The second thing of note is the large precipitation gradients in areas near the heaviest rainfall. One only needed to have traveled a relatively short distance to go from eight to ten inches of rainfall to amounts of around an inch.

A similar, albeit greater, rainfall gradient occurred in my backyard, Collier County, in southwest Florida, on Sunday. A small convective weather system (without thunder and lightning), developed along the sea breeze front and moved slowly northwestward across parts of north-central Collier County. Heavy rainfall (between 1.47 and 1.78 inches according to two nearly co-located reporting stations) fell just two miles to the northeast of my rain gauge. According to a high school student interested in meteorology (and one

who attended a Naples weather camp last summer), most of the rainfall that he measured fell in just under 20 minutes (Fig. 4). That translates to an hourly rainfall rate of 4.5 inches to 5.5 inches. I measured a scant 0.07 inches of rainfall, although I did briefly experience gusty outflow winds from the convective weather system. Fig. 5 shows radar-based rainfall estimates for southwest Florida on Sunday.

While these situations were somewhat similar in their excessive rainfall and localized rainfall gradients, one was linked to a large-scale low-pressure system and the other to a small-scale sea breeze zone. This is testimony that different meteorological scenarios can yield similar meteorological outcomes.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 4/4/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Ground fog! (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Dense fog advisories (Fig. 1) as well as the fog they describe (Fig. 2), covered southwest Florida early this Friday morning (Jan. 6, 2017). Some places had 0-0 visibility (that is, zero feet both horizontally and vertically); other places had visibilities of several miles horizontally and several hundreds of feet vertically (Fig. 3). Visibility is defined as how far one can see cloud bases (vertically) or known ground-based objects (horizontally).

   

It is the variation in fog thickness horizontally (and associated visibility) that came to the forefront this morning as I walked my dog, Pepper, around our southwest Florida neighborhood.

  

First, looking up my street, visibility was about a half mile, the measured length of my street (Fig. 4). As soon as Pepper and I walked onto the golf course, fog density increased and visibility decreased (Fig. 5). As we approached the location of my COCORAHS (Community Collaborative Rain Hail and Snow Network) rain gage, which is adjacent to a large pond, the fog density increased further and visibility tumbled down to a few hundred feet (Fig. 6). All images were taken within 10 minutes of one another.

These three scenarios are described in the table below:

Location Fog density Visibility
Street light ½ mile
Golf course dense ~ ¼ mile
Near pond very dense few hundred feet

For the street, warmer air temperatures resulted in less dense fog. Over the golf course, temperatures were slightly cooler, allowing for somewhat dense fog to develop. In the pond area, cooler air temperatures and higher atmospheric moisture contributed to the densest fog.

Note that these conditions contribute to the formation of fog. But, local winds, drainage winds, and other factors can allow fog areas to move. Not surprisingly, this can result in highly variable fog density along roadways. Common sense dictates that motorists of all types of vehicles (cars, buses, trucks) drive more slowly and pay even greater than average attention to potentially rapidly changing visibility.

While the dense fog has lifted already, it will be back again, especially during the upcoming winter months.

– – – – –

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 1/6/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

weather

What a difference a wind direction makes (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

The other day, I wrote about the arrival of a strong cold front in south Florida. That front arrived with a significant chill down. Low temperature readings, this Saturday morning (Dec. 31, 2016), were in the 40’s across many areas of southwest Florida. Even with relatively light north winds, wind chill readings dipped into the 30’s to the north of a Fort Myers-Lake Okeechobee line. Dew point readings tumbled into the teens and twenties in many areas (Fig. 1).

But, with brilliant sunshine and a wind shift to the southeast, temperatures soared into the 70’s across most of south Florida by mid-day Saturday (Fig. 2) and into the mid- to upper- 70’s across southwest Florida by Saturday afternoon. Of even more significance was that dew point readings jumped from the 20’s into the low and mid 50’s in most places (Naples shown in Fig. 3).

This transition was linked to a change in wind direction. During the day on Friday and into Saturday morning, winds arrived from the north and northeast (Fig. 1); this kept the trajectory of the arriving continental Polar air mass passing over land. On Saturday, the trajectory of air was from water first and over the Florida peninsula next (Fig. 2). The result was that a continental Polar air mass had been replaced quickly by a maritime Tropical one.

And the trend will continue. By today, New Year’s Day, highs across southwest Florida reached the low- to mid- 80’s. Morning lows only dipped into the mid 60’s to lower 70’s along the southeast coast and low 60’s in most other coastal locations. These warmer day- and night- time readings should be the rule (plus or minus a few degrees) for most of the upcoming week.

I hope to be writing, soon, about examples in which wind direction and/or variations in wind direction play a significant role in an evolving weather event. Other GWCC writers have already posted regarding lake effect snow showers and squalls. Stay tuned!

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 1/1/17

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Chilly wind chills for south Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

Once a strong Pacific cold front barrels through south Florida later today, attention will shift to windier weather and much chiller temperatures. The combined effect of wind and temperature will contribute to unusually low wind chills for the area. Wind chill is a measure of heat loss from exposed skin.

For Friday morning, wind chills across south Florida will range from the mid 40’s in more northern inland locales to the lower 60’s along southeast and southern locations (Fig. 1).  By Saturday morning, wind chills from Collier County northward, along the west coast, will likely dip into the 30’s and lower 40’s. The combined effect of nearby warm Atlantic waters and a northerly wind flow across Lake Okeechobee (whose waters are still quite warm) will keep East Coast southeast inland locations mostly in the mid 40’s to near 60 degrees (Fig. 2).

Then the chill vanishes, almost as quickly as it came.  Winds will quickly turn to east and allow warmer, more humid air from over the Atlantic to move back into the area. Hence, by Saturday afternoon, many western areas of southwest Florida will see temperatures skyrocket into the mid 70’s.

As noted in yesterday’s post, for the fireworks and other outdoors activities on New Year’s Eve, look for temperatures across southwest Florida to fall back into the mid to upper 60’s with light (5 to 10 mile per hour) southeasterly winds.

© 2016 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 12/29/16