consumerism, weather

Insurance Matters – Post Irma and Post Harvey (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

During the past two weeks, I spent many hours helping Dave Elliott and his team at WGUF-FM (98.9) radio here in Collier County, FL. Stephen Johnson (control room) and Scott Fish (101.9 – Gator Country radio, simulcast with WGUF) rounded out the team.

While my focus was weather, I also did some research and reporting on preparedness and post storm recovery matters. I also listened to discussions among our team and calls from listeners. I’d like to start sharing some these here to help Irma victims (and also those in Texas affected by Harvey).

This article will address a few hurricane-related insurance matters. Before beginning, let me note that I am not an insurance adjuster or a structural engineer. The items described here are simply to get readers to think things through before they either ignore insurance or go crazy about dealing with it. Always, get professional advice before addressing any matters involving insurance.

(1) Read your insurance policy BEFORE contacting your agent (Fig. 1). If you don’t have a clue about policy coverages and exclusions, I predict that you will get frustrated quickly.

(2) Take pictures BEFORE cleanup. Make sure you show water levels and the wrack (debris) line, tree damage, roof tiles or shingles lying on your lawn (where they fell) with your house in the background of the image. These pictures can help your adjuster piece things together long after the storm’s visual impacts disappear.

(3) Call your insurance agent, but, be prepared for long wait times. Insurance companies typically have agents available to help you. However, when the number of potential claimants becomes large, agent access can become difficult. Some companies are setting up mobile customer support centers in affected communities. Check with your insurance company, if they haven’t already e-mailed you information.

(4) Find out what you can do to mitigate further damage, even before your claim is approved. Often, putting blue tarp on a roof and covering damaged windows are encouraged. Be sure that anyone you contract with is a reliable, certified and bonded contractor. In Florida, you can contact the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation (850-487-1395). To report unlicensed activity, call 1-866-532-1440). In Texas, you can contact the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation or American Contractors – Texas; however, not all contractor and building licenses seem to be listed here.

(5) File a claim with FEMA for either uninsured or uninsured losses online, or by phone (800-621-3362). While the focus is on homeowners, there is a question that should direct your application to the Small Business Administration for possible small business coverage.

I filed this morning and it takes less than 20 minutes to do this online. You can also call FEMA directly to file a claim. Even if you don’t qualify for assistance, you should still file a claim.

If you have a FEMA flood insurance policy, check the policy for filing procedures.

(6) Remember that if you don’t file a claim and do things to facilitate its successful conclusion (in your favor), the answer will always be “denied.”

I hope this helps some people get a better handle on their insurance matters in the wake of these two destructive storms. I will update this article as I come across additional insurance information.

For those in disaster areas, please take care and recover safely and quickly.

For those in any area, please think about contributing to reliable and effective charities. Remember, that after the initial rush to get utilities restored, cleanup begun, properties secured, and finding water, ice and food, people will need money to put their lives back together.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/15/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Dangerous Irma Targeting Naples (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

As of late yesterday afternoon, downtown Naples, U.S. Highway 41 (Tamiami Trail), and Naples/Collier County beaches resembled a ghost town. One could drive down Gulfshore Boulevard (a thoroughfare about a block or so from the beach) and perhaps see one or two cars. Fig. 1 shows the scene sans vehicles.

It was eerie.

But there was good cause for the lack of humankind. After a week of Hurricane Irma track uncertainty across the state of Florida (the large-scale storm track was “spot on;” the details across Florida, not so), computer and human thinking centered on a track along the west coast of Florida. Now, early Saturday morning (Sept. 9, 2017), the expected storm track is actually slightly west of Naples (i.e., with the center remaining over water). This is reminiscent of Donna (which destroyed the Naples Pier in 1960) and Charley (which slammed into Punta Gorda, north of Fort Myers in 2004).

This sets the stage for a worst-case scenario for Collier and Lee Counties.

Specifically,

high winds – much of Collier and Lee Counties will be impacted by triple digit sustained winds because the eye wall will be passing directly over both counties. Wind gusts can easily reach speeds that are 20 percent higher than sustained winds. Even though Irma has weakened slightly this morning (due in part to interaction with topography across Cuba), reintensification is expected later today (once Irma leaves Cuba).

heavy rainfall – since the right side (i.e., the wet side) of the storm will be affecting the two counties, roughly eight to 12 inches of rainfall (with locally higher amounts) is anticipated. Given recent heavy rainfall and flooding, these two-day rainfall totals may help replicate the recent flooding.

tornadoes – again the right side of the storm (mainly, the leading front right quadrant) is where tornadoes are most likely to form. That storm quadrant will be passing directly over Collier and Lee counties during the day on Sunday. Fortunately, most hurricane-generated tornadoes are weak and short-lived.

storm surge – is not an instantaneous (or wall-like) rise of water. Rather, it is the relentless onslaught of waves pushing water onshore, without the corresponding opportunity for water to flow back to the ocean. As a result, water levels can rise and push far inland.

Clearly storm surge will be a major risk for many areas. With a storm center over land, Naples and Fort Myers would not receive as much of an initial surge; with a storm offshore, an initial surge from the south is likely. Under either scenario, as the storm moves north of Collier and Lee Counties, hurricane force westerly winds will push additional salt water onto land areas for a longer period of time. Expected surge values will be in the six to 12 feet range.

High tides can add to the expected storm surge. Unfortunately, the turn to westerly winds will be occurring near the time of high tide (about 4:00p.m. E.D.T. on Sunday). Note that expected surge height values do not include any waves that may occur during the time of the storm surge.

Large areas of Collier County (and lesser areas in Lee and other west coast counties) are in the high surge flood risk. The map in Fig. 2 shows at surge risk areas due to a CAT 2 hurricane. Generally speaking the highest risk areas are south and west of State Highway 41.

This is a very large and very dangerous hurricane, one that can cause extensive damage to structures, trees, power lines and signs.

Since it’s too late to evacuate the area, it’s best for local residents and visitors to take shelter in sturdy structures or county-operated storm shelters. People living in mobile homes or manufactured housing should definitely leave these well in advance of the hurricane’s arrival.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/9/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather, weather safety/preparedness

Getting Ready For A Hurricane and more… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

There are plenty of “to do” lists out there addressing what to do to prepare for a hurricane, undertake during a hurricane, and address following a hurricane. Some of the more detailed lists can be found at the following web pages:

Weather Ready Nation

FEMA – Hurricane Harvey

American Red Cross

• Your local TV stations (if you are in hurricane country)

At each of these, be sure to look for sub-page links that may provide even more detailed information. FEMA’s – Hurricane Harvey web page (found under the main page “Navigation” menu bar) provides considerable tailored information specifically for Texans. Look for a similar FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) page to surface as Irma starts impacting the U.S. The Red Cross web site includes information about many topics, including how to locate loved ones who may be within a disaster area. In addition, many local TV stations distribute hurricane guides (Fig. 1), tracking charts and other informational items via local supermarkets and drug stores.

Today, I’m going to expound upon these lists a little, providing some insights as to WHY certain things are recommended. I’ll also add a few “out the eye wall” ideas. Note that no list can be totally inclusive.

Regardless of what you read or hear, hopefully, you’ll employ common sense and logic to your actions. Also, be sure you get your information from reliable sources. It’s at times like these that well-thought out plans need to be put into play. And remember that governmental and volunteer service organizations may not have the resources or the capabilities to assist you for days, maybe even weeks, after a major hurricane strike.

• If you don’t have an emergency kit, create one. It should include items that can be placed in heavy duty, sealable, freezer storage bags. Group items to facilitate finding what you may need. For example, you might have individual, labeled, plastic bags that contain medical records, medicines (may not able to refill after the storm), identification (e.g., passports, birth certificates), small denominational cash (ATM machines may not be working, if power loss occurs), cell phones and electronic appliances (sealed to keep out water) and even food and snacks (to avoid contamination with ground water). If possible, put these smaller plastic bags into larger sealable plastic bags or sealable containers.

• Although many companies (e.g., banks, credit cards, utilities) may work with you after the storm to accept late payments (without late fees), it’s just easier to make payments in advance.

• You will want to ensure that certain food items are refrigerated and/or frozen even if you lose power. One way is to ensure that temperature settings in both fridge compartments are set as low as possible BEFORE the storm strikes. If you have created frozen plastic soda or water bottles or sealable containers/freezer bags in advance, these can be used to chill the refrigerator or freezer compartments. Large chunks of ice stay colder longer than bags of individual ice cubes.

Another way is to cook some of the frozen food beforehand. It will be easier for cold hamburgers to survive, for example, than to keep ground beef frozen.

• The same chilling factor can be said for your home. Chill your home as low as possible before power is lost so you’ll have at least a slightly more comfortable environment for a longer period of time.

• Stock up on non-perishables. This includes water, crackers, nutrition/energy bars, breads, cereals, pretzels, chips, snacks, chocolate (my favorite), canned food (e.g., tuna fish), peanut butter (doesn’t require refrigeration), and even astronaut food (possibly available at a local science store). Don’t forget toilet paper, tissues, paper towels and plasticware.

• Speaking about toilet paper, be sure to fill a bathtub or two with water to help with toilet flushing.

• If you lose power and want hot water for coffee, hopefully you’ll have an accessible natural gas line or propane canister. We have a small camping stove and some small propane canisters that we plan on using in an outside location, if needed.

• If you have power banks or power sticks, be sure these are fully charged before the storm strikes. These low-cost power supplies can help power smaller appliances during power outages. Be sure your appliances are fully charged in advance, too. If you have an emergency generator (note that many condo associations don’t allow these), be sure it is charged and/or you have fuel available.

• Bring any lose or liftable objects indoors. This includes hanging or potted plants, patio furniture, trashcans and toys.

• DON’T use any type of tape to protect windows. Most tapes are not strong enough to prevent glass breakage or shattering. Even if you aren’t in a flood zone, consider the flooding potential. Move valuable or important objects, non-refrigerated or non-frozen foods, furniture and electronics to higher levels in your home.

• If you need to evacuate (either by car, mass transit or plane), consider doing this during daylight hours. It is easier to see roads, obstacles and other vehicles, especially if you wind up on local roadways. Be careful of evacuating into the projected path of the storm. You might wind up leaving a secure structure only to stay the night in a less structurally secure motel or other building (or find yourself stuck on clogged roadways).

Also, turn off gas lines, water lines and electricity before leaving.

If you can’t evacuate (or chose not to), then plan to “hunker down,” hopefully in a safe place (e.g., non-flood zone) and with neighbors or relatives. Be sure to move your car to higher ground (away from trees and power lines), if possible.

• If you are elderly, or are in a senior facility, moving out of a flood zone early is better than waiting. Several such facilities in the Houston area failed to evacuate and were flooded, putting the elderly patients at risk.

• Before the rains arrive, consider cleaning roof gutters and downspouts to facilitate the moving of water away from your home. If there are storm drains near your home, take a few moments (even it’s not your responsibility) and clean out any leaves, twigs and other debris), to enable faster drainage.

• If you have kids or pets and evacuate (and you know that pets are welcome at the evacuation center), think about bringing games, toys, books and other items that can add fun and psychological stability to the situation.

• And, just in case, think about board games, cards, and jigsaw puzzles as things to do to pass the time in a potentially non-electrical home universe. This list is long and getting longer. I will be updating it periodically, including valuable suggestions that may come from my readers. In advance, thanks for your comments and feedback.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 9/5/17

Uncategorized, weather

Tropical system affecting Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

While ex-hurricane Franklin dissipated quickly over Mexico yesterday, a much weaker tropical system began affecting Florida (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the system was located over the Bahamas and all its storminess remained well east of Florida. In fact, thanks to the dynamics of these “tropical waves,” places west of the wave (in the Northern Hemisphere) are typically afforded sunny skies.

That was the dichotomy across Florida yesterday. The wave was located across southeast Florida late in the morning. As a result, southeast Florida was under a dense cloud canopy with numerous showers and thunderstorms (Fig. 2); at the same time, southwest Florida was experiencing scattered cumulus clouds and some high-altitude cirrus clouds, blow off from the storms to the east (Fig. 3).

East of the wave, southerly wind flow at low levels was convergent (winds blowing together). This forced air to rise, and rising air often yields clouds and precipitation. West of the wave, low-level northeasterly winds were divergent, yielding sinking air and clearer skies.

As of mid-morning yesterday (Aug. 10, 2017), Fort Lauderdale / Hollywood Airport (FLL) had logged record-breaking rainfall (at least 3.36” versus the old record of 3.35” set in 2003; records for FLL date back to 1912). To highlight the variability of rainfall, nearby Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport (FXE), just 9 miles away, received a scant 0.69” during roughly the same time period.

The “tropical wave” headed westward yesterday and brought some heavy thunderstorms to southwest Florida. One thunderstorm moved from north to south across Lee, Hendry, and Collier Counties, bringing  locally rainfall amounts, of an inch to more, to the area. The storm had a very pronounced outflow boundary, with a multi-layer “shelf cloud” marking its arrival (Fig. 4).

Today, with the tropical wave remaining over south Florida, more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected. Again, rainfall amounts may be locally heavy, with ponding of water possible in usually vulnerable low-lying areas and on roadways.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 8/11/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

technology, weather

Rain temporarily leaves Southwest Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

The focus during tropical cyclone events is typically on high winds, coastal storm surge, heavy coastal and inland rainfall, and possible flooding. However, if one is located far enough away from the storm’s circulation, atmospheric processes may lead to less rainfall. Such is the case for southwest Florida during the past few days. And while rainfall didn’t vanish entirely from the southwest Florida area, it certainly dropped off dramatically.

Fig. 1 shows the upper level wind flow as determined by weather satellite and radiosonde (weather balloon) data. Computer programs can track cloud elements and compute their motion (and, hence, winds). Combining radiosonde wind and temperature data and infrared satellite cloud temperature measurements, computer programs can assign winds into specific altitude bands.

Late on Jun. 21, 2017, it is easy to see this altitudinal variation near Tropical Storm Cindy (located just offshore from the Texas-Louisiana coast). Winds shown in green show a counterclockwise (low-pressure) circulation. Mid-altitude winds are tagged to be between 20,000 feet to 25,000 feet above ground level or at pressure altitudes of 350mb to 500mb. Pressure is measured in millibars (mb) and decreases as one goes higher in the atmosphere (due to less air above).

To the north and east of Cindy’s mid-altitude circulation, higher altitude winds (shown in blue) actually spin slightly clockwise (indicating a high-pressure system). This differential circulation pattern is often found in well-developed tropical storms and hurricanes.

This upper-level circulation leads to a ridge or high-pressure system to the east of the storm’s circulation. In this high-pressure system, sinking air dominates. This is in contrast to the rising air motion (and associated clouds and precipitation) within Cindy’s circulation. Note that precipitation can still extend quite a distance from the storm’s center, but is mostly confined within the low- and mid-level counter-clockwise circulation pattern (Fig. 2). As a result of these upper and lower level circulation considerations, southwest Florida experienced less cloudiness and less shower and thunderstorm activity during the past two days.

As Cindy landfalls, weakens and moves to the northeast (see Fig. 2 – the elongated shape of the storm’s circulation is oriented in the direction of future movement), the upper ridge over Florida will slowly weaken and a more usual daytime shower and thunderstorm pattern will return to southwest Florida.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 6/22/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

hydrology, weather

South Florida Rainfall Records Going Under Water (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

A few days ago, I noted that southwest Florida “rainfall for June 2017 (now almost only half over) was at rarified levels.” Since I’ve had a chance to compare observed rainfall to longer-term records (using the NOAA Regional Climate Center data base), it is clear that the deluge so far this month has started to submerge many existing records.

Recognize, however, that many locations do not have official long-term records; hence, the numbers shown for record comparisons are limited to only a few sites. And, even for some of these, records are rather short-term. Regardless, the numbers are more than impressive across the entire region. They are even more impressive when one realizes that less than a month ago, everyone was worried about drought and forest fires!

Looking at a radar – rain gauge data mix (Fig. 1), it is easy to see where the heaviest rainfall has occurred. Collier and Broward Counties have some locations with an excess of 20 inches so far this month.

Thus far this month (through early morning on Jun.18, 2017), Naples Airport, FL (APF) has received 11.40 inches of precipitation. The average for the entire month of June is about 8.80 inches. Based on the Naples area period of record (1942-2017), the 11.40 inches ranks 17th on the list of highest monthly amounts. The record June rainfall occurred in 2005 (20.51 inches); the second highest amount was recorded in 1947 (17.97 inches).

Regional Southwest Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers has received 12.96 inches so far this month, making this the 5th wettest June at RSW (records have been kept there only since 1998). The record occurred in 2005 (20.85 inches).

With an even shorter period of record, Marco Island has already measured 20.90 inches of rain this June. The record (25.21 inches) also occurred in 2005.

Rainfall, year-to-date, at Marco Island is now at roughly 60% of the total average yearly rainfall of about 50 inches.

Given the weather pattern that we are in and the abundant tropical moisture supply, it is likely that some of these long-term records could be challenged and broken as the month continues. And, to think, there’s still 13 days left in the month!

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 6/18/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

climate, weather

More heavy rainfall for southwest Florida (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Rainfall for June (now almost only half over) is already at rarified levels. Many locations across southwest Florida have logged 15 to 20 inch values. And more rainfall is anticipated.

In fact, for the Naples area (my home base), the official National Weather Service (NWS) forecast is calling for 50 to 70 percent daytime rainfall probabilities each day for the next week.

And, no wonder. The atmosphere above the now, so-called “Sunshine State,” is overburdened with moisture (Fig. 1). According to NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), precipitable water (PW) was at 1.92 inches at Miami, FL early this Thursday morning. PW is the measure of all water vapor in a column above a radiosonde (weather balloon) sounding location. For Jun. 15, the climatological average PW at Miami, FL is 1.66 inches and a 90 percentile PW is 2.00 inches. In short, if all the water vapor above a point could be condensed into liquid water and then squeezed out (like a sponge), and no water vapor moved in or out of the atmospheric column, 1.92 inches of rain would result.

Further, winds throughout the atmospheric column from the ground to some 50,000 feet above ground level are less than 15 miles per hour. That means that any storms that develop will not move very fast.

While outflow boundaries (areas marking where low-level winds blowing out of thunderstorm areas meet the environmental air mass) may interact with other outflow boundaries and sea breezes to enhance thunderstorm formation or localized movement, most storms will be slow-moving, prolific, rainfall producers. Many locations could see short-period downpours of one to two inches or more during the upcoming week or until the weather pattern changes.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 6/15/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather, weather safety/preparedness

More Naples, FL area wildfires (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Late Thursday, Apr. 20, 2017, two wildfires of unknown origin broke out in the Golden Gate Estates area of east Naples, FL. Although fire fighters jumped into action quickly, dry and windy conditions allowed the fire to spread. By this morning, the combined blazes had grown to about 2,500 acres.

Collier County Emergency Management issued evacuation orders for some limited areas yesterday and expanded areas affected during today. As of late this afternoon, the boundaries of the evacuation area extended from the south side of Golden Gate Boulevard south to the east-west portion of I-75 and from Collier Boulevard east to Wilson Boulevard.

Jim Dickey, WZVN-TV (CH 7 – ABC, Fort Myers) Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, posted radar imagery at around 10:00 a.m. E.D.T. today of the dual fires at his Twitter page (@WxDockey). Dickey noted that “Now that A.M. inversion has lifted, smoke plumes from #30thStFire and #FrangipaniFire visible on radar” (Fig. 1).

     Images from the Immokalee Fire Control District showed the scope of the fires and their associated large billowing smoke clouds (Fig.2 and Fig. 3). Overnight and during Friday morning, the smoke reached the Naples City limits, lowering visibility at the Naples Airport (KAPF) to 3 miles. Based on the trajectory of the plume this morning (WZVN-TV radar imagery and video), and the fact that the smoke plume is still showing up on the Miami National Weather Service radar late this afternoon, most of western Collier County (including the city of Naples) and parts of southern Lee County are going to be experiencing smoky conditions through tonight and into early Saturday morning.

Thus, smoke from the fire will be affecting many more people than the fire itself. Small airborne particles from the fire may lead to respiratory problems, even for healthy people. Check out Fig. 4, a wildfire poster from http://www.ready.gov, republished by Florida Health. It contains some useful tips for dealing with smoky air.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 4/21/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

weather

SWFL-GWCC South Florida’s Cowbell fire grows rapidly (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Discovered on Mar. 30, a relatively small brush fire in South Florida’s Big Cypress National Preserve (eastern Collier County) grew slowly during the following week. By Apr. 8, the Cow Bell fire (so named, because it is near the Cow Bell Strand within the Big Cypress National Park – Fig. 1) had consumed roughly 600 acres. On Sun., Apr. 9, thanks to an increase in easterly winds (and continued dry weather), the blaze exploded. By late Sunday, the blaze had consumed more than 8,000 acres. For comparison, this fire is slightly larger than the burned acreage from the Picayune Strand Fire (western Collier County) back in early- to mid-March. Fig. 2 shows the smoke plume from just north of the Cow Bell fire area.

During much of its lifetime, the fire has been moving westward across “Alligator Alley,” mostly parallel to Interstate Highway (I-75). Campgrounds in the Bear Island area, within the Preserve, are being evacuated. Due to the rapid spread of the fire, fire-fighting crews have had to reassess possible containment lines for stopping the fire’s westward movement.

Maximum smoke impacts were expected closest to the fire, with smoke also impacting I-75 between mile markers 55 through 80. On the evenings of Apr. 9 and 10, around sunset, smoke smell permeated the air in parts of North Naples (more than 50 miles from the fire). Smoke from the fire was also evident in the skies over North Naples. Fig. 3 shows the smoke plume as shown on the NWS Miami radar during mid-afternoon on Apr. 9.

Lacking any rainfall for the foreseeable future, and given the pineland and cypress habitat that is ablaze, the hundreds of fire-fighters engaged in battling the fire will have their hands full. Fortunately, there are only a few structures anywhere near the fire area, at this time.

Officials have urged all drivers on I-75 to use extreme caution and to check road conditions before starting travel across the “Alley.” The highest likelihood for experiencing roadway visibility restrictions due to smoke will be between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. daily. This is the time window during which an inversion, a low-level temperature pattern with warmer air overlying cooler air, is most likely to trap smoke near the ground.

Big Cypress National Preserve officials have instituted the following closures:

  • Gator Head Campground
  • Bear Island Campground
  • Jeep Campground
  • The road leading into the Sanctuary except to residents
  • All trails between state road 29 and L-28 Canal including the Florida Trail
  • All public lands west of the L-28 Canal
  • All public lands east of state road 29
  • All public lands south of the Preserve boundary
  • All public lands north of Alligator Alley

In addition, a temporary flight restriction has been placed over the Cowbell Fire (ground level to 3,000 feet mean sea level) to provide a safe environment for fire-fighting aviation operations. In addition to 17 fire engines, at least seven helicopters and two water tanker aircraft are involved in firefighting efforts. The area will likely be expanded to accommodate increased fire growth.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 4/11/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.

 

climate, humor, weather

Southwest Florida winter to continue (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

BULLETIN: Four Naples groundhogs spied their shadows early Thursday morning. Hence, look for six more weeks of south Florida winter. Yahoo!

Punxsutawney Phil does not have a sterling record of furcasting the weather for the last six weeks of winter, even though the official Punxsutawney web site says otherwise. I know because an intern and I analyzed about 100 years of Phil’s forecasts in the late 1990’s. During our research, we discovered that, at best, Phil was accurate only about 10 percent of the time. Phil just kept getting it wrong…and getting it wrong…and getting it wrong, much like Bill Murray did in the movie, Groundhog Day.

Phil’s forecast accuracy is far below chance and offers stark testimony to the inability of the Groundhog legend to really offer any hint about upcoming weather. Still, the legend is fun and offers a great escape for mid-winter blues. And even with a spate of Johnny-come-lately Marmota Monax’s (Phil has many ancestors and bretheren), groundhog weather prediction simply doesn’t cut it.

One reason these groundhogs keep getting it wrong is because of media coverage. No, the furry critters aren’t creating fake news. Rather, as Al Roker noted on the Today Show, Thursday morning, there are simply too many camera lights. Hence, the only forecast possible is ongoing winter. Not surprisingly, even with cloudy skies (Fig. 1), Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Thursday (Fig. 2). I didn’t even bother to see what the other nationally known groundhogs predicted. I knew the answer.

Instead, my focus was on four Naples groundhogs. Okay, so they are Ty babies™. They are still groundhogs! And I can report, unequivocally, that no camera lights were at play. It was pure sunshine that allowed these marmots to see their shadows (Fig. 3).

While folks in northern climes are dreading six more weeks of winter, we in Naples are thrilled about winter’s continuance. The reason is that in southwest Florida, winter means lovely weather. Average daily climatological temperatures start in the mid-60’s in early February and only rise into the lower 70’s by the end of March. The daily range spans about ten degrees above and below these values. In short, it’s almost like late Spring in northern states. With minimal rainfall chances, it’s the weather southwest Floridians crave.

The only drawback to the lovely weather is that southwest Florida could use a few days of steady rainfall. Southwest Florida and much of the Florida peninsula, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center, has been (and is expected to continue to be) abnormally dry.

Wherever you may live, and whatever the weather brings, please, enjoy. Summer heat and humidity, for most of us, are just over the distant horizon.

© 2017 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 2/4/17

* The National Weather Association Digital Seal (NWA-DS) is awarded to individuals who pass stringent meteorological testing and evaluation of written weather content. H. Michael Mogil was awarded the second such seal and is a strong advocate for its use by weather bloggers.