A Rainy Weekend Begins
A tropical weather system (as yet unnamed) is heading toward southwest Florida. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the system to become better organized and become a tropical storm later today (Friday, June 3, 2022). Once named, Alex (click here for information about naming tropical storms and hurricanes) will continue its northeast trek toward southwest Florida (Fig. 1).
The good news is that strong winds at higher altitudes are going to keep soon-to-be-named Alex from intensifying a lot and will keep him on a faster and faster trajectory toward Florida…and then allow him to speed away from southwest Florida into the Atlantic. While gusty winds are likely starting later today into Saturday, sustained winds should remain at or below tropical storm force (39 miles per hour) over most land areas. Winds will be stronger (along with significant wave action) in offshore waters.
The bad news is that the weather system will bring copious, possibly flooding, rainfall to south Florida. As of 4:54 a.m. E.D.T., rain has already overspread most of Collier and Miami-Dade counties and will continue to move northward across south Florida (Fig. 2).
While the area needs rainfall, too much of a good thing, too quickly, often yields the opposite. Forecasts are calling for upwards of five to seven inches of rainfall in a roughly thirty-six hour period (Fig. 3), with shorter duration bursts of excessive rainfall (e.g., rainfall rates of several inches or more per hour). Based on my experience, this means localized storm rainfall totals of more than twelve inches will occur.
In more urbanized (concrete- and asphalt-paved) areas, urban flooding is likely. This means ponding of water on roadways (making travel more hazardous) and deeper water and flooding in lower-lying locales. Places that have experienced flooding in past weather situations should anticipate the likelihood of flooding again. Even if one can’t stop water from entering their home or business, it is a good idea to get what items you can to a higher level (second story, shelving at the top of a closet) prior to the onset of the heavy rainfall, if you are in a flood-vulnerable location.
Stay tuned to local media updates, National Weather Service forecasts, and information from local governmental officials concerning this weather event. Here are some useful links:
Miami NWS – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/
Tampa Bay NWS – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/
National Hurricane Center – http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Rainfall Forecasts – https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
I will try to post an update later today or early Saturday morning.
© 2022 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 6/3/22
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