Darby to bring wind and rain to parts of the Hawaiian Islands (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil July 21, 2016July 21, 2016

Tropical Storm Darby, now in his 11th day, is on a westward course at 14 miles per hour toward the Aloha State. At 11:00 a.m. H.S.T. (5:00 p.m. E.D.T.) Darby, with sustained winds of 65 miles per hour, was located some 755 miles southeast of Honolulu, Oahu (and about 560 miles east of Hilo, Big Island) (Fig. 1). Forecasts keep Darby as a strong tropical storm until he starts to interact with the Hawaiian Island mountains on Sunday and Monday. Even with this interaction, weakening is expected to be slow.

This suggests a long period of fairly strong winds over eastern parts of the island chain; in addition, flash flood watches have been posted for Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii due enhanced tropical storm rainfall linked to mountain-generated upslope winds. With an island landscape punctuated by many narrow, steep canyons, channeling of rainfall and the flow of runoff can be quick. Coastal areas throughout Hawaii, especially on north- and east-facing beaches, can expect rough, high surf. Offshore, tropical storm warnings have been posted around much of the island chain (Fig. 2).

National Weather Service forecasters continue to emphasize that residents and visitors in the Hawaiian Islands should carefully monitor the progress of Darby, as he could eventually have impacts on all islands. They also note that, “it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out (into the future) is near 100 miles, while the average intensity error is about 15 knots (20 miles per hour). In addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the center.”

For what it’s worth, I start my trip to Hawaii this Saturday and will be arriving on Oahu just before the storm’s effects arrive. So, look for my on-the-scene reports as the weekend unfolds.

Originally posted 7/21/16

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