Mostly a good weather forecast (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)
During severe weather situations, the media (and the NWS) are quick to note the number of people (in the 10’s of millions) who are, “under the gun.” Yet, in some small-scale situations, the number affected may actually be quite small. In other cases (larger-scale storm systems), large numbers of people may be under a weather watch, but significantly lesser numbers are actually affected by the weather. Personally, I think this framework is hype. The bigger the danger numbers presented, the bigger the ratings. This only fosters a “cry-wolf” mentality going forward. Further, our job as meteorologists should be to cover the weather and ensure timely and useful information is in the hands of the public.
So, it is with great pleasure that I announce the following. For the upcoming week, some 200 million people across the U.S. will be affected by mostly good weather! A zonal (west-to-east) and northwesterly upper level wind flow (associated with a broad upper level ridge [Fig. 1] across the western states) will keep much of the U.S. under mostly sunny skies, low relative humidity readings and seasonally pleasant temperatures.
The main exceptions will involve a lingering storm system across the northeast and parts of the Great Lake and a strong onshore flow across the northwest U.S. In these places, cloudiness will be more extensive and prevalent and rainfall will be heavier (Fig. 2).
Of course, the good weather comes with some bad news. Drought areas in the west and southeast regions will stay locked in drought; given the dry conditions, there is a growing risk of forest and grassland fires, as well.
Still, most can’t argue against really pleasant autumnal weather. Here is southwest Florida, low temperature readings in the 50’s, like those experienced this Sunday morning, are to be cherished!
© 2016 H. Michael Mogil
Originally posted 10/23/16