Newton weakens; brings flash flood threat to parts of Arizona and New Mexico… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

H. Michael Mogil September 7, 2016September 7, 2016

As quickly as Newton formed, it has begun its demise. Moving across rough terrain in northwestern Mexico, Newton has been downgraded to tropical storm status early this Wednesday morning. By this evening, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters, Newton should be in depression status as it moves across southeastern Arizona (Fig. 1).

Already, Newton has spread tropical moisture northward into Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2). With some reports of one to two inches of precipitation already and widespread general rainfall occurring already across southern parts of the two states, flash flood watches have been posted until this evening (Fig. 3). In parts of Maricopa County (west of Tucson), a flood advisory has been posted. According to the Tucson National Weather Service (NWS) office, “as of 6:57 a.m. M.S.T…gauge reports indicated one to 1.5 inches of rain (had fallen) over the past one to two hours…” The rain was linked to a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from the east (within the counter-clockwise circulation of Newton).

With rainfall amounts possibly reaching four inches or more locally, several NWS offices across the flash flood watch area have advised that normally dry arroyos (dry stream beds) will likely see rising water as the day progresses. And with the rainfall expected to continue all day, as is always the case with arroyos and low water roadway crossings in dry wash areas, the NWS has urged drivers to be especially cautious and not drive into any flooded areas or any areas with moving water. Conditions will be more treacherous in mountainous areas (due to merging runoff from small watershed areas) and downstream from any burn scar areas (linked to recent forest or grassland fires). Scar areas are often more impervious and lack vegetation that can lessen flooding dangers.

Once Newton moves through the area overnight, only slight chances of shower and thunderstorm activity are expected for the remainder of the week.

Originally posted 9/7/16

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