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Tag Archives: flooding

Enhanced severe weather threat for southeast U.S. (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, NWA-DS*)

Batten down the hatches (and be prepared to take shelter today and tonight) if you live or are traveling across the southeast U.S. The Storm Prediction has issued a highly unusual severe weather outlook for the region – calling for a moderate to high severe weather risk for South Carolina,

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Scheduling the arrival of Matthew’s winds (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

National Weather Service (NWS) offices from Florida northward to the Carolinas have been publishing numerous “local action statements” and other information about Category 4 (Major Hurricane) Matthew (Fig. 1). Included are probabilities of various weather hazards, flooding maps, storm track maps and much more. Local media outlets, reliable weather bloggers,

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Matthew heading for Florida… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

There’s an old expression about, “proximity.” It goes, “close, but no cigars.” That was clearly contrived in another era. However, in the case of Matthew, close may be close enough. The latest National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) projected track for Matthew brings him very close to the Florida east coast near

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Matthew – a significant threat to the U.S. East Coast… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

This morning, while Matthew continues to pummel parts of the western Caribbean with high winds, high waves, heavy rainfall, mudslides and more, forecasters are becoming increasingly concerned about Matthew’s future. Matthew now poses a significant risk to much of the U.S. East Coast. Governors in several states have already declared

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Matthew Plods Along… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

The overall picture of the future of powerful Hurricane Matthew remains little changed since yesterday. Following a cyclonic loop and a slow course adjustment to the northwest, Matthew is still just moving at a five-mile per hour forward speed. Over the next five days, Matthew is expected to make relatively

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Powerful Matthew Takes Aim on Jamaica… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

Overnight, hurricane hunter aircraft and satellite imagery intensity estimates placed Hurricane Matthew in a Category 5 status. A category 5 hurricane is one with sustained winds of 157 miles per hour (137 knots) or more. At 8:00 a.m. E.D.T., on Oct. 1, 2016, Matthew’s winds were estimated to be just

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Newton weakens; brings flash flood threat to parts of Arizona and New Mexico… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

As quickly as Newton formed, it has begun its demise. Moving across rough terrain in northwestern Mexico, Newton has been downgraded to tropical storm status early this Wednesday morning. By this evening, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters, Newton should be in depression status as it moves across southeastern Arizona

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Tropical Storm Hermine is now getting weird (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

Take a look at today’s early morning (Sept. 3, 2016) Hermine forecast track from the National Hurricane Center – NHC (Fig. 1) and you’ll see several things appear to be, well, just plain weird. However, there is some good rationale behind each of these. First, Hermine is expected to slow

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Fiona fades; Gaston grows; but there is another tropical system (99L) on Florida’s horizon… (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

Fiona (the sixth Atlantic tropical cyclone of the 2016 season) recently passed. In her wake, Gaston briefly reached hurricane strength far out in the Atlantic. Another tropical system (99L) near the Bahamas is still showing signs of intensifying this weekend as it approaches the Florida Straits. And, more African waves

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Louisiana under a flooding emergency (H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMS)

Early this Saturday morning, many parts of southern and central Louisiana were under a flooding emergency. Widespread 10 to 20 inch rainfall totals (Fig. 1) have led to flooding and flash flooding with some places under evacuation orders and others dealing with water reaching and entering homes and businesses. The National

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