THEWEATHERMOGIL:: A vote for mostly nice weather

H. Michael Mogil February 21, 2016

“Super Tuesday,” perhaps the biggest single day of primary election year voting, arrives in a little more than a week. Twelve states have Republican primaries or caucuses; ten states have Democratic primaries (with American Samoa holding a caucus). Six of the primary states are in the Deep South, with three states (Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee) in the Southeast and three (Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas) across or near the southern Plains. All “Super Tuesday” states are noted in the listing below.

What are the Super Tuesday states?

Both Democrats and Republicans: Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.

Republicans only: Tennessee primary and Alaska caucus.

Democrats only: American Samoa caucus.

I singled out the states above because two areas are expected to have some weather problems that day. The Southeastern states will be faced with locally heavy rainfall and possibly severe storms (reminiscent in some ways to the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak of Feb. 5 – 6, 2008). Arkansas and the eastern parts of Texas and Oklahoma will have a chilly rain, followed by cloudy skies (Fig. 1).

Otherwise, the weather should be mostly “good,” across the Nation.

As with election predictions, outcomes are subject to updating and change. Because of the importance of these primaries and caucuses, we’ll provide periodic updates during the next week or so to keep the weather in focus. We’ll follow that with further updates for the next three months, thanks to a spate of primaries that doesn’t end until June 14.

If you live in any of these states or territories, regardless of your chosen candidate, I encourage you to use your right and responsibility to vote. I will be voting in the Florida primary on Mar. 15, regardless of the weather.

Originally posted 2/21/16

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