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THEWEATHERMOGIL:: More stormy times followed by chilly weather for southwest Florida

Posted byH. Michael Mogil January 22, 2016

With a potentially crippling snowstorm/blizzard set to affect the mid-Atlantic states today and Saturday, it would be easy to lose a local focus. However, since I am slated to give a weather talk at the Friends of Barefoot Beach Lecture Series tomorrow (Jan. 23, 2016), keeping atop of local conditions is uber-important.

Let’s face it, the weather this month across Florida has been quite interesting. And the next 36 to 48 hours will keep that trend intact, according to the National Weather Service in Miami, FL (Fig. 1).

SWFL001-weather-impacts-160122-160124

Today, showers and thunderstorms (some storms strong to possibly severe) should move across the area. Winds will be increasing from the south to southeast with gusts up to 30 miles per hour. As dew points rise into the middle 60’s and a very strong upper level stream flies past at some 30,000 feet or so above sea level, conditions continue to move toward a severe storm set up.

Once the storms exit, winds will shift to the northwest and remain gusty in the 25 to 30 mile per hour range over land. Over water areas, winds are expected to reach gale force, even near the store. This will set the stage, yet again, for strong wave action and rip currents along Florida west coast beaches. Local beach erosion and considerable sand transport can be anticipated.

Look for temperatures to tumble across southwest Florida with highs over the weekend only rising into the lower 60’s with overnight lows dropping into the lower and middle 40’s. Inland locations could see some readings in the upper 30’s.

As next week unfolds, temperatures will rise back to near or slightly above seasonal averages.

As for my talk tomorrow, I am nearly 100 percent certain that I will be leading my audience to the beach to look at wind and wave action at work. We should also have ample low-level cloudiness in place which will allow me to explain winds aloft.

My talk starts at 10:00 a.m. E.S.T. at Barefoot Beach Park, entrance off Bonita Beach Road, Bonita Springs, FL (address 503 Bonita Beach Road, North Naples, FL 34134).

© 2016 H. Michael Mogil

Originally posted 1/22/16

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