THEWEATHERMOGIL:: Wet and windy weather upcoming for south Florida

H. Michael Mogil June 3, 2016June 3, 2016

For more than a week, computer models have suggested a developing rainy period for south Florida during the first part of June. Now, a tropical weather system may enter the equation. Computer models and National Hurricane

Center guidance suggest that a potential tropical low will develop off the Yucatan Peninsula and race northeastward to near Tampa by Tues., Jun. 7 (Fig. 1). The low will then track out into the Atlantic where it is expected to intensify further. If named, this tropical system will become Colin.

Aside from the tropical system, a very warm and moist air mass is currently in place

over the Florida peninsula. When the sub-tropical jet stream moves into the area and winds at higher altitudes become more southwesterly (Fig. 2), the ingredients will be in place for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to develop and persist late into next week. National Weather Service forecasters are already anticipating up to half a foot of rainfall by next Friday across parts of the Florida peninsula (Fig. 3). As always, my rule-of-thumb is that local amounts can easily be double the overall forecast values, especially if successive thunderstorms move across the same area.

Some coastal and low-lying area flooding and wave action leading to rip currents and beach erosion on Gulf of Mexico-facing beaches (south of the Big Bend) is possible. Further, strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes and waterspouts can’t be ruled out.

While rain and thunderstorms will be widespread and cloudiness extensive, there will likely be some periods during which the sun will peek through the overcast. The added solar input will just add extra heat to the lowest atmospheric levels…more fuel for thunderstorm development.

Meanwhile, heavy rain will be continuing across parts of eastern and central Texas, adding to the major flood event there. This flooding will be a subject for a separate post here at GWCC.

Originally posted 6/3/16

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