THEWEATHERMOGIL:: Winds, waves and beach erosion for southwest Florida

H. Michael Mogil January 17, 2016January 17, 2016

Severe thunderstorms rolled through southwest Florida early this Sunday morning. Naples Airport, in the path of a severe storm, recorded wind gusts to more than 80 miles per hour around 5:30 a.m. E.S.T. I live near the storm’s path and winds easily gusted above 50 miles per hour in North Naples, FL. The mesocyclone responsible for this severe weather was evident on National Weather Service (NWS) radar (in varying intensities) from about 5:00 a.m. E.S.T. until almost 6:30 a.m. E.S.T.

Scattered power outages were reported across Lee and Collier Counties. Preliminary reports on TV news indicated that there was some significant tree damage in parts of Collier County. I will be heading out shortly to assess damage myself.

Now that the thunderstorms are exiting the area, southwest Florida is going to have deal with the other side of the storm system moving across north Florida. The main low-pressure system, located to the northwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has sea level pressures below 29.50 inches of mercury. Such intense lows are highly unusual for latitudes south of 30 degrees North. The pressure in this low can be likened to that within a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm.

As the low moves across north Florida today, a very strong pressure gradient will move into southwest Florida. Since wind is linked to pressure gradient, strong winds are on tap for much of today. Winds at data buoys in the east-central Gulf of Mexico were already blowing at sustained speeds of 45 miles per hour (with higher gusts) before sunrise today. Storm warnings have been posted across much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Closer to shore, small craft advisories have been hoisted. Over land areas, wind advisories and lake wind advisories are in effect.

At the shore, consider today to be an off limits day for the water. Waves and high surf, up to 5 to 7 feet, will lead to a high likelihood of rip currents and beach erosion from north of Fort Myers southward through Naples. Fig. 1 summarizes many of these watches, warnings and advisories.

The NWS office in Tampa has provided the following information about rip currents and high surf:

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE…WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS…

JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT…DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT…BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO

NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS… BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS…AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS.

Winds will start to diminish by early afternoon.

With the stormy weather moving away, a large, cold Canadian high-pressure system will move in. Look for temperatures to drop below seasonal averages by tonight and continue below average for several days. By Thursday, temperature readings will return to near seasonal averages.

Originally posted 1/17/16

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