Groundhog Day Revisited
We all know the story of Punxsutawney Phil, the greatest weather forecasting groundhog ever…right?
Wrong! Back around 2000, an intern and I verified Phil’s Groundhog Day forecasts for a 100-year period. Alas, Phil’s “furcasting” prowess was around 10%. I don’t believe that number has changed much, if at all, since then. Note that the official groundhog website states that Phil is 100% accurate.
So, this year, when Phil recognized his real lack of weather forecasting skills (even with its links to the European Candlemas celebration), he decided to branch out (yes, this is a tongue-in-cheek story, along with some factual information).
While relaxing in his home at the Punxsutawney Library, Phil had an epiphany as he pondered what he’d do instead. He decided he’d predict the end of the COVID pandemic – “if I see my shadow,” Phil noted, “I’ll head back to my burrow and the pandemic will continue. If I don’t see my shadow, the pandemic will end…like magic.”
With Phil’s non-ability to predict weather (notwithstanding his “seer of all seers” handle), I’m not sure we should put a lot of faith in Phil’s new vocation. Rather than rely on Phil, I’ll focus on Groundhog Day – The Movie (Fig. 1), instead. You can rent on various TV services or watch for free most of the day on AMC (check cable listings).
So, this morning, with overcast skies and snow falling, the lighting provided by TV camera crews gave Phil the shadows he needed. Phil predicted winter (and the pandemic) will continue.
© 2021 H. Michael Mogil